TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which TV show will be ranked number one on Netflix in the United States this week. Currently, the consensus probability that “Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1” will be the top show is 98.4%, while “NFL Melbourne Game: 49ers vs. Rams” has a 1.4% chance. This prediction aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the official Netflix Top 10 list published on top10.netflix.com. Keep an eye on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, when Netflix is expected to update its list reflecting viewership from the previous week and determine the outcome of this market.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi creates separate markets for each potential show, while Polymarket focuses on individual show questions and includes a tie-breaking rule.Hero tip: Consider the alphabetical order of titles on Polymarket if you anticipate a tie for the top spot. Kalshi's structure allows for hedging across multiple potential winners.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves Yes if the specified show is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 list, with a tie-breaking rule based on alphabetical order of show titles. "If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically."
- Kalshi: Each show has its own market that resolves Yes if that show is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 list. "If [Show Name] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specific show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on September 15, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication. All markets explicitly state that neither Netflix nor Kalshi endorses these products, and any references to Netflix are purely descriptive and not indicative of affiliation or endorsement. The consistency across all markets ensures uniform timing and data source for resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on viewership numbers, critical reception, and marketing spend, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. This can lead to discrepancies, especially when unexpected factors come into play, such as viral social media trends or surprise releases. The real-time nature of this market allows it to quickly incorporate new information, potentially offering a more dynamic and accurate forecast than static analyst reports.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected new show releases, major plot twists in existing series, or viral social media campaigns surrounding a particular show could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in Netflix's content strategy, such as promoting a specific show heavily, could also influence predictions. Additionally, news regarding the renewal or cancellation of popular series, or the announcement of new cast members, might move the market. Monitoring these factors can provide insights into potential shifts in the probabilities surrounding the top US Netflix show.