TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1
- Kalshi
Death of the Pastors Wife: Season 1 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 1, 2026
Closed: Aug 31, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1
Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1
Intro
This market tracks which television show will be ranked number one on Netflix in the United States for the week ending September 1, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability that “Outer Banks: Season 5” will be the top show is 1.5%, as aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket. “Tires: Season 3” currently has a 0.4% probability of achieving the top ranking. Resolution will be based on the official Netflix Top 10 US TV Shows chart published at top10.netflix.com. Keep an eye on the Netflix Top 10 list as it’s updated throughout the week, with the final ranking determining the outcome on September 1, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve against the same primary data source (Netflix Top 10 chart) with only minor timing differences for fallback conditionsPrimary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 US TV Shows chart published on September 1, 2026 at top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- Check Netflix Top 10 US TV Shows chart published on September 1, 2026
- Identify the show ranked #1 for the week ending August 31, 2026
- If chart not published by September 4, 2026: Polymarket resolves to "Other"; Kalshi markets remain conditional on their specific show clauses
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie for #1: Polymarket resolves to the show whose title comes first alphabetically; Kalshi markets resolve based on their specific show conditions
- Chart Delay: Polymarket defaults to "Other" if chart not published by September 4; Kalshi markets remain live until chart publication
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on September 1, 2026, which reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication date. None of the markets imply endorsement by Netflix, and all references to Netflix are used descriptively without affiliation. The resolution for each market hinges solely on the chart position of its respective show, with no additional conditions or weighting applied across markets.