TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
polymarket
kalshi

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Volume:
$112,890

My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3

 - Polymarket

My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 18, 2026

Closed: Aug 18, 5:50 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$42,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 6 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,506
N/A
N/A
$2,221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 9 million

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,476
N/A
N/A
$3,166
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Tires: Season 3

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 12 million

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,265
N/A
N/A
$6,169
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 15 million

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,995
N/A
N/A
$4,474
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 30 million

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,529
N/A
N/A
$3,963
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 21 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,749
N/A
N/A
$4,353
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 35 million

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,352
N/A
N/A
$3,611
Settled
No
polymarket

Conversations with a Killer: The Charles Manson Tapes: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,064
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 18 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,330
N/A
N/A
$1,553
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 25 million

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,030
N/A
N/A
$1,795
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 40 million

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,219
N/A
N/A
$1,219
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 50 million

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,095
N/A
N/A
$1,095
Settled
No
polymarket

Mourinho: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

The Bombing of Pan Am 103: Limited Series

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$512
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25

Description

This event group tracks which television show will rank as the top US Netflix show for the week, based on viewership data reported by Netflix. The markets will resolve according to the official Netflix Top 10 TV shows list update.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold Divergence / Settlement Value MismatchHero tip: Traders should monitor both the ranking and viewership numbers. A show could be #1 but fail to meet the Kalshi thresholds, leading to divergent outcomes across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on which show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 list as published on August 18, 2026, with ties resolved alphabetically. If the update does not occur by August 21, 2026, it resolves to "Other".
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on viewership thresholds (6M, 9M, ..., 50M) for the #1 show as reported on August 25, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Multiple markets exist, each with a different view threshold (6 million, 9 million, 12 million, etc.). For each market, if the top English-language show on Netflix's weekly Global charts has at least the specified number of views as published on August 25, 2026, that market resolves to Yes. The charts are updated on Tuesdays, and the market closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before. Views refer to count rather than hours watched. These markets are not endorsed by Netflix.

Frequently asked questions

Key signals that could shift odds in this market include early viewership leaks, social media trends highlighting specific shows, platform announcements about new releases or renewals, and weekly viewing reports from reliable entertainment news sources. Any surge in discussion around a contender—especially on platforms like Twitter or Reddit—may dramatically alter market sentiment before the final count.