TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare
- Kalshi
The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 5, 2026
Closed: Aug 3, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which TV show will rank number one on the US Netflix Top 10 list for the week ending August 4, 2026. The aggregated consensus probability for the leading outcome is 99.0%. Data comes from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution based on Netflix's official Top 10 US TV Shows list published on August 4, 2026. Watch for the official Netflix ranking publication on August 4, 2026, to confirm this week's top show.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the same official Netflix Top 10 US TV Shows list published on August 4, 2026, using identical ranking and tie-break rules.Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Top 10 US TV Shows list published on August 4, 2026 at top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- The #1 show on Netflix's US Top 10 TV Shows list for the week ending August 4, 2026 determines resolution
- If multiple shows tie for #1, the show whose title comes first alphabetically wins
- Polymarket's "Other" market resolves as Yes if Netflix does not publish the list by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie at #1: The show whose title comes first alphabetically wins; all markets resolve accordingly
- Missing List: Only Polymarket's "Other" market resolves as Yes; all specific show markets resolve as No
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on August 4, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication (Tuesday). No endorsement from Netflix is implied, and all references to Netflix are used descriptively. The consistent secondary rules across all markets ensure uniform timing and clarify that the August 4 chart represents the prior week's performance.