TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Hawk: Season 1
- Polymarket
The Hawk: Season 1 - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 21, 5:10 PM EST
Polymarket
Intro
This market tracks which show will rank number one on Netflix's official US Top 10 TV shows list. Across Polymarket and Kalshi, The Hawk: Season 1 commands a 90.0% consensus probability of claiming the top spot. Resolution will be determined by Netflix's official Top 10 TV shows list published on July 21, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, which reflects viewership data from the prior week. Watch for the chart publication on July 21 to see whether The Hawk maintains its commanding lead or if another show displaces it from the top position.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the same resolution event (Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published July 21, 2026) and the same metric (which show ranks #1 by total US viewership). All binary markets across both platforms resolve Yes if their specified show is #1, and No otherwise.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows list at top10.netflix.com, chart published July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET (Netflix's standard Tuesday update)
- Resolution metric is total views in the United States for TV shows, as reported by Netflix
- The show with the highest ranking (position #1) on the published chart determines all market outcomes
- Each binary market resolves Yes if its specified show is ranked #1; all other shows resolve No
- If multiple shows are tied for #1, Netflix's official ranking order breaks the tie
- Polymarket specifies a fallback: if the update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, markets resolve to Other
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Data source unavailability: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if top10.netflix.com does not publish by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume non-resolution or dispute if Netflix fails to publish.
- Tie for #1 position: Netflix's official ranking order on the published chart determines the single #1 show. No market resolves Yes in case of a tie unless Netflix explicitly lists one show as #1.
- Show not on chart: If a specified show does not appear on the Top 10 chart at all, it is not #1, and that market resolves No.
- Polymarket Show A-G placeholders: Polymarket includes 7 undefined shows (Show A through Show G) and an Other category. These resolve Yes only if those unnamed shows rank #1. Recommend clarification from Polymarket before trading.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 US Show chart published on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 20, 2026, the day before publication. The event resolves to Yes if any of the specified shows achieves the #1 ranking on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional media analyst predictions because traders have direct financial incentive to price outcomes accurately, while analysts may rely on press releases, early reviews, or studio hype. Markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants, sometimes surfacing emerging viewership signals before mainstream coverage catches up. However, analyst forecasts can incorporate qualitative factors—creative direction, cast appeal, marketing spend—that individual traders might underweight. Comparing both perspectives provides a fuller picture of a show's competitive position.
Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and market design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts distinct user bases with different risk tolerances and information sets, leading to temporary price spreads. Platform-specific rules around order types, settlement timing, and fee structures also influence how quickly new information is reflected. These differences typically narrow as arbitrage traders exploit gaps, but real-time divergence is normal and can signal where informed traders see edge.
Major catalysts include new episode releases, celebrity news tied to cast members, critical reviews, social media momentum, and competing show launches that fragment viewership. Netflix's own promotional pushes and algorithmic ranking changes can shift audience distribution week to week. Real-world events—award nominations, viral moments, or cultural controversies—often drive sudden interest spikes. Traders monitor entertainment news, streaming data trackers, and social sentiment to anticipate shifts in viewer preference before odds adjust.