TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
I Will Find You: Limited Series
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list as of the chart published on June 30, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying resolution event: Netflix's official weekly ranking update reflecting viewership data from the prior week (June 23-29, 2026).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi defines a closed set of 10 named shows with no explicit fallback, while Polymarket includes named shows, placeholder identifiers, and an "other" catch-all. The mapping between Polymarket's placeholder shows and real titles is undefined, creating potential for outcome gaps or duplicates.Hero tip: Before market launch, obtain a definitive list of all shows eligible to rank #1 on June 30, 2026, and confirm that Kalshi's 10 shows and Polymarket's named shows are identical. Verify the real identities of Polymarket's Show A-G placeholders. Ensure both platforms' outcome spaces are exhaustive and mutually exclusive. Confirm the exact publication time and data source (top10.netflix.com) and whether Netflix's ranking can have ties.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Defines 10 specific shows (Outlast: The Jungle, Sweet Magnolias: Season 5, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, The Four Seasons: Season 2, Raw: 2026, I Will Find You, The Polygamist: Season 1, Michael Jackson: The Verdict, AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS, Danny Go!) as YES resolution paths. No explicit fallback if a different show ranks #1. Quote: 'If [show name] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jun 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Resolves based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on June 30, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Includes 13 named show questions (The Last Ship, The American Experiment, I Will Find You, Danny Go!, Outlast: The Jungle, Sweet Magnolias: Season 5, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, The Polygamist: Season 1, AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS, Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2) plus 6 placeholder show questions (Show A-G) and 1 'another show' catch-all. Fallback to 'Other' if update does not occur by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Quote: 'This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 US Show rankings published on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, June 28, 2026. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2026, one day before chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified show achieves the #1 position on that published chart.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under different regulatory frameworks, user demographics, and liquidity pools. Kalshi and Polymarket may also settle outcomes using distinct verification methods or timing windows, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities. Polymarket typically attracts larger retail participation and higher volume on entertainment events, while Kalshi's user base may have different risk appetites or information access. These structural differences mean identical events can trade at meaningfully different odds across venues, especially in the hours before resolution when late-arriving information reshapes trader positioning.
Major catalysts include new episode releases, celebrity news tied to cast members, social media viral moments, and competing show launches that fragment viewership. Netflix's own promotional pushes and algorithm changes can dramatically shift which titles surface to users. Real-time viewership leaks or early Nielsen data often trigger sharp repricing. Award nominations, critical reviews, or cultural moments (memes, controversies) can accelerate interest in specific titles. Traders also monitor competing platforms' releases and broader entertainment news, since unexpected hits or flops elsewhere can redirect attention to or away from Netflix's slate. Late-week momentum shifts are common as viewers adjust their watching habits.