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$1,944,100,805

420,493

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What will be the top US Netflix movie this week? (November 3)
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
kalshi

What will be the top US Netflix movie?

Total volume:
$14,600
Volume 24h:
$2,157
55%
Liquidity:
$7,166
317%
Open interest:
$9,062
19%

Surviving Hurricane Otis

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:02h:54m

Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% High Projected APY: 3,817% Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Surviving Hurricane Otis

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 99¢No 4¢
3¢
$691
$3,610
16%
N/A
N/A
1d 2h 54m
Active
kalshi

Surviving Hurricane Otis

Trade
96%
2%
Yes 99¢No 4¢
3¢
N/A
$2,533
30%
N/A
$1,906
12h 55m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
96.9%
Yes 99¢No 4¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Animals

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 100¢
6¢
N/A
$2,024
22%
N/A
$1,810
12h 55m
Active
polymarket

Animals

Trade
1%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.9¢
2.4¢
$1,311
$111
10%
N/A
N/A
1d 2h 54m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.8%
Yes 4.3¢No 100¢
Avg: 4.2¢Max: 6¢
kalshi

Gladiator II

Trade
4%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$1,350
33%
N/A
$1,199
12h 55m
Active
polymarket

Gladiator II

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.9¢
1.3¢
$1,379
$211
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 2h 54m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.6%
Yes 2.2¢No 100¢
Avg: 2.2¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Hot Wheels Let's Race: Attack of the T-Rex

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 99.9¢
2.9¢
$971
$111
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 2h 54m
Active
polymarket

Armored

Trade
1%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.8¢
2.5¢
$892
$131
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 2h 54m
Active
kalshi

Doing Life

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,643
3%
N/A
$2,643
12h 55m
Active
kalshi

Twilight

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$902
0%
N/A
$888
12h 55m
Active
kalshi

Ice Age 5: Collision Course

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$312
372%
N/A
$312
12h 55m
Active
kalshi

UNABOMBER

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$132
33%
N/A
$132
12h 55m
Active
kalshi

Terry McMillan Presents: Preach, Pray, Love

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$99
0%
N/A
$99
12h 55m
Active
polymarket

You, Me, Us

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
—
$1,013
$191
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 2h 54m
Active
kalshi

Sacrifice

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$73
0%
N/A
$73
12h 55m
Active
polymarket

Sacrifice

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$908
$167
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 2h 54m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.4%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

The Breadwinner

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12h 55m
Active
kalshi

Ice Age

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12h 55m
Active
kalshi

The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
12h 55m
Active
Total markets: 19

Description

This prediction market asks users to forecast which movie will be ranked #1 on Netflix's Top 10 US Movies chart for the week of November 3, 2026. The resolution is based on the official Netflix rankings published on their website.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes a fallback resolution to 'Other' if the Netflix Top 10 list isn't updated by a specific deadline, while Kalshi does not.Hero tip: Consider the potential for a delayed Netflix update and its impact on Polymarket markets. Kalshi markets are exposed to the risk of no resolution if the update is significantly delayed.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the Netflix Top 10 list updated by 3:00 PM ET on November 3, 2026, with a fallback to 'Other' if the update doesn't occur by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Ties are broken alphabetically.
  • Kalshi: Resolves based on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on November 3, 2026. Each market resolves 'Yes' if its corresponding movie is #1. No fallback or tie-breaking rule is specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

The event determines the highest-ranked US Netflix movie for the week ending the Sunday before November 3, 2026, with resolution based on the chart published on that Tuesday. Each market corresponds to a specific film; resolution occurs if that film occupies the #1 position. All markets close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before publication. These markets are independent predictions and do not imply endorsement by Netflix. The outcome depends solely on Netflix's official chart data for the specified period.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks predictions about which movie will be the most popular on Netflix in the United States for a specific week. The dashboard aggregates data from both platforms to provide a consensus view of the likely outcome. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $14,600, indicating significant interest in forecasting the top movie. The current spread between the leading predictions is 1.5. This market offers a unique opportunity to gauge public sentiment and predict entertainment trends.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts typically base their predictions on studio marketing spend, star power, and genre trends. However, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict viewer behavior. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, the real-time adjustments in this market can offer a more dynamic and potentially accurate signal. The current 24-hour volume of $2,609 demonstrates active trading and evolving expectations.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader demographics, market liquidity, and platform-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different pool of participants with varying expertise and risk tolerance. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can influence price discovery. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will "Surviving Hurricane Otis" be the top US Netflix movie this week? at 97.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Surviving Hurricane Otis be Top US Netflix Movie on Nov 2, 2026? at 96.0%, reflecting these differing viewpoints. These discrepancies present opportunities for arbitrage traders.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top movie on US Netflix is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a widely recognized third-party source tracking streaming performance. The market’s outcome will reflect the movie that held the number one position for the majority of the tracked week. Traders should monitor news and data releases leading up to the resolution date to assess potential shifts in the market.

Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected positive or negative reviews of potential contenders, major marketing pushes from Netflix, and viral social media trends can all influence viewership. The release of trailers or new episodes of popular series could also divert attention away from movies. Any news regarding cast controversies or production delays could also impact a film’s prospects. Monitoring these factors and their potential impact on viewer behavior is crucial for informed trading in this market.