TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$218,201,443
24H TRANSACTIONS:
527,797,601
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,873,651
500,842
Markets across
13,663
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,809
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 Movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 Netflix movie in the United States. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi lists 11 specific movies as potential outcomes, while Polymarket lists 22 binary questions covering those same movies plus additional titles and a catch-all 'another movie' option. Both platforms resolve on the same Netflix Top 10 chart published March 24, 2026, but Polymarket's structure allows for any movie to resolve YES (including unlisted ones via the catch-all), whereas Kalshi's structure limits YES outcomes to its predefined 11 movies.Hero Tip:
If a movie not listed on Kalshi's 11 becomes #1 on Netflix, Polymarket's 'another movie' market will resolve YES while Kalshi has no corresponding YES market—creating a structural gap. Conversely, if one of Kalshi's 11 is #1, both platforms will resolve consistently. Traders should verify which specific movie they expect to top the chart and check whether it appears in Kalshi's explicit list.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi uses a closed-list model with exactly 11 named movies (Trolls, KPop Demon Hunters, Gaslit By My Husband, Jurassic World: Dominion, The Captive, Nobody 2, Jurassic World Rebirth, Nuremberg, Trap House, War Machine, Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man). Each market resolves YES if that specific movie is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published March 24, 2026. No catch-all or 'other' option is provided; if a movie outside this list ranks #1, no Kalshi market resolves YES.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket uses an open-list model with 22 binary questions covering specific movies (including Nobody 2, Saw: The Final Chapter, Saw, The Bad Guys 2, Jigsaw, KPop Demon Hunters, War Machine, Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man, 27 Dresses, Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere) plus placeholder titles (Movie B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K) and a catch-all question 'Will another movie be the top US Netflix movie this week?' This structure allows any movie—listed or unlisted—to resolve YES. Resolution is based on the Netflix Top 10 chart update on March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, with a fallback to 'Other' if the update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
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