TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
War Machine
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 18, 2026
Closed: Mar 17, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 28
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies list for the week ending March 17, 2026. Multiple prediction markets across Polymarket and Kalshi offer binary contracts on individual movie titles, with resolution based on Netflix's official ranking published on March 17, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Movie roster mismatch and semantic ambiguity. Polymarket uses generic placeholders (Movie A-K) alongside named titles and an Other catch-all, while Kalshi lists only concrete, specific movie titles. If the #1 Netflix movie is not explicitly named on a platform, resolution paths diverge: Polymarket defaults to Other, Kalshi has no explicit fallback.Hero tip: Avoid trading on Polymarket's generic movie placeholders (Movie A-K) unless you can independently verify which real-world titles they represent. On Kalshi, note that any #1 movie not in the 10 listed titles will leave all Kalshi contracts unresolved or disputed. Monitor Netflix's March 17 update closely and cross-reference both platforms' title lists against the actual #1 ranking to avoid settlement disputes.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: 19 binary questions covering named titles (Kpop Demon Hunters, Jurassic World Rebirth, War Machine, Nobody 2, Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere, Jobs) plus generic placeholders (Movie A-K) and an Other catch-all. Resolution: Netflix Top 10 US Movies list published March 17, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Fallback: If no update by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, resolves to Other. Key quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
- Kalshi: 10 binary questions covering only concrete, named titles (Jurassic World, Joe's College Road Trip, KPop Demon Hunters, Deepwater Horizon, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, War Machine, Trap House, Jurassic World Rebirth, Jurassic World: Dominion, Trolls). Resolution: Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published March 17, 2026. No explicit fallback or Other option. Key quote: 'If [title] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'