TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts might rely on pre-release buzz or genre trends, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and real-time viewing data. Discrepancies can arise from differing methodologies and the speed at which this market reacts to new information. It's common to see this market adjust rapidly to unexpected viewership numbers, something that analyst forecasts may not capture as quickly.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares in each potential outcome at prices determined by supply and demand. As more people bet on a particular movie, its price increases, reflecting a higher probability of it being the top movie. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share represents the probability of that movie winning, minus a small platform fee. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds continuously reflect the collective beliefs of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top US Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a reputable third-party source tracking Netflix rankings. The market will then pay out to the shares corresponding to the winning movie, reflecting the final, verified results of the week's most popular film on the streaming service.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected trailer releases, positive or negative critical reviews, and major social media trends surrounding a film can all influence viewership. A surprise new release from a popular franchise or a highly anticipated original movie could quickly shift the odds. Furthermore, any news regarding Netflix’s promotional efforts for specific titles, or changes in viewing habits during the week, could also impact trading activity and cause the market to react accordingly.
