TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Why Did I Get Married Again?
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist
Intro
This market tracks which movie will be the most popular on Netflix in the US during the week of September 21, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability that *Why Did I Get Married Again?* will be the top US Netflix movie is 99.0%. This forecast is an aggregation of views from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the official Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published by Netflix. Keep an eye on the Netflix Top 10 list, which is typically released each Tuesday, with the relevant chart for resolution expected on September 22, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers markets for multiple movies being #1, while Polymarket focuses on individual movie predictions. Polymarket also has a tie-breaking rule (alphabetical order) absent from Kalshi.Hero tip: Trade Polymarket markets for specific movie outcomes. Kalshi markets are broader, representing a basket of potential winners.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on whether a specific movie is ranked #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movies list, with a tie-breaker of alphabetical order. "Will 'Why Did I Get Married Again?' be the top US Netflix movie this week?"
- Kalshi: Resolves Yes if *any* of a predefined list of movies is ranked #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movies list. No tie-breaking rule is specified. "If Why Did I Get Married Again? is #1...then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified movie ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on September 22, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the preceding Monday. The published chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday. None of these markets imply any endorsement from Netflix, which is mentioned only descriptively. Resolution depends solely on Netflix's publicly available chart data for that date and week.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on pre-release hype or studio marketing, while this market reflects real-money bets placed by individuals with skin in the game. This can lead to more accurate predictions, as traders are incentivized to assess all available information and adjust their positions accordingly. While analyst opinions can be valuable, the aggregated forecasts embedded in this market provide a unique and often insightful signal about the likely outcome, potentially identifying under or overvalued options.