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What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
kalshi
polymarket

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Volume:
$85,889

Why Did I Get Married Again?

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Why Did I Get Married Again?

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$19,535
N/A
N/A
$16,054
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Why Did I Get Married Again?

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,626
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

The Whisper Man

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$31,526
N/A
N/A
$23,989
Settled
No
polymarket

The Whisper Man

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Turning Point: Generation 9/11

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,751
N/A
N/A
$6,321
Settled
No
polymarket

Turning Point: Generation 9/11

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$529
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

9 to 5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,415
N/A
N/A
$5,415
Settled
No
kalshi

Those Who Wish Me Dead

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,588
N/A
N/A
$4,270
Settled
No
kalshi

The Secret Woman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,809
N/A
N/A
$2,809
Settled
No
polymarket

The Secret Woman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

The Angry Birds Movie 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,018
N/A
N/A
$2,018
Settled
No
kalshi

Facing El Chapo

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,270
N/A
N/A
$1,270
Settled
No
kalshi

Straight Outta Compton

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,192
N/A
N/A
$1,192
Settled
No
kalshi

Untold Raygun: Breaking Badly

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$719
N/A
N/A
$719
Settled
No
kalshi

Shark Tale

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$440
N/A
N/A
$440
Settled
No
polymarket

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$368
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Those Who Wish Me Dead

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$265
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ready or Not

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$195
N/A
N/A
$195
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Description

This group forecasts which movie will be ranked #1 on Netflix's Top 10 list in the US for the week of September 11-17, 2026. The resolution will be based on the official Netflix Top 10 chart published on September 15, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi offers markets on multiple movies being #1, while Polymarket offers markets on single movies being #1. This creates a SKU/subset risk.Hero tip: Be mindful that Kalshi markets are effectively 'OR' bets across a defined list of movies, whereas Polymarket markets are 'AND' bets (the specific movie *must* be #1).

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves YES if the specific movie named in the question is ranked #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movies list. Includes a fallback to 'Other' if the list isn't updated by September 18, 2026. "Question: Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top US Netflix movie this week?"
  • Kalshi: Resolves YES if *any* of a predefined list of movies is ranked #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movies list on September 15, 2026. "If The Whisper Man is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on September 15, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Trading will close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, September 14, 2026, one day before the chart update. Only the single film occupying the #1 position on that specific chart determines resolution — no ties, fractional positions, or alternative metrics are considered. All markets explicitly state that Netflix has not endorsed these products, and references to the platform are purely descriptive. The consistent secondary rules across all markets ensure uniform timing and disclaimer application for every competing title.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often provide a more accurate forecast than traditional analyst predictions. This is because markets aggregate the wisdom of many individuals, incentivized to make correct predictions through financial gain. While analysts rely on subjective assessments and limited data, this market reflects real-money bets, creating a strong signal. Discrepancies can arise if analysts haven’t fully accounted for factors influencing viewer behavior, or if the market incorporates information not yet public. Observing the difference between market probabilities and expert opinions can offer valuable insights.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Announcements of new movie releases on Netflix, particularly those with high marketing budgets or popular franchises, are likely to shift probabilities. Positive or negative reviews from prominent critics can also influence viewer interest. Unexpected viral trends on social media related to a specific movie could drive viewership. Furthermore, any news regarding Netflix’s content strategy or subscriber numbers could indirectly affect predictions. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding price movements in this market.