TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 8, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 11, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on pre-release buzz or genre popularity, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and real-time viewing data. It's common to see discrepancies between expert opinions and the probabilities expressed in this market, particularly when unexpected titles gain traction. This difference highlights the potential for prediction markets to offer a unique and insightful view of entertainment trends.
This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top movie on US Netflix is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on the official Netflix rankings for the relevant week. This ensures a clear and objective resolution process, reflecting the actual viewership data. Traders will have until the resolution date to adjust their positions based on any new information or shifts in viewing patterns.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. A major marketing push for a new release, positive critical reviews, or unexpected social media buzz surrounding a film could all drive increased trading activity and shift the probabilities. Furthermore, the release schedule of new movies on Netflix plays a crucial role, as a highly anticipated title could quickly overtake existing contenders. Any unexpected changes in viewing habits or trending content could also move this market substantially before Sep 8, 2026.