TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$224,766
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart as of the update published on Tuesday, March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. The resolution is based on Netflix's official viewership data for the preceding week (Monday to Sunday). Both platforms are asking the same fundamental question but with different market structures and candidate lists.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve based on the identical Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart published on March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, measuring total US viewership for the preceding week.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 Movies ranking published at top10.netflix.com on March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution occurs on March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its Top 10 US Movies chart
- The movie ranked #1 on that chart triggers YES for its corresponding market(s)
- Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix
- Exactly one movie will resolve to YES; all other candidate movies resolve to NO
- If the chart update does not occur by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other
Edge cases & Clarifications:
- No update by deadline: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if top10.netflix.com does not update by March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback, creating a minor contingency gap.
- Movie not on chart: If a candidate movie does not appear in the Top 10 at all, that market resolves NO. Only the #1 ranked movie resolves YES.
- Tie or co-ranking: Netflix's official methodology produces a single #1 ranking; ties are not expected in the published data.
- Polymarket Movie Aliases: Polymarket uses placeholder names (Movie A, B, C, etc.) and one alternate title (The Rip, Prometheus) alongside explicit titles. These must be matched to actual Netflix titles at resolution time; ambiguity here is a minor data quality risk.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on March 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes the Top 10 chart. Final settlement deadline is March 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.