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What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
kalshi
polymarket

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Volume:
$574,321

A Toxic Love Story

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 28, 2026

Closed: Jul 27, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

A Toxic Love Story

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$130,886
N/A
N/A
$79,405
Settled
Yes
polymarket

A Toxic Love Story

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$51,252
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

72 HOURS

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$198,049
N/A
N/A
$133,968
Settled
No
polymarket

72 Hours

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,409
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$56,226
N/A
N/A
$55,843
Settled
No
polymarket

Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,068
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Desire

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$34,749
N/A
N/A
$30,498
Settled
No
polymarket

Desire

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$850
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Wicked: For Good

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,585
N/A
N/A
$15,263
Settled
No
polymarket

Wicked: For Good

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

The Boss Baby

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,150
N/A
N/A
$9,150
Settled
No
polymarket

The Boss Baby

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Nothing to Lose

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,104
N/A
N/A
$8,104
Settled
No
kalshi

The Body in the Locker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,802
N/A
N/A
$4,393
Settled
No
polymarket

The Body in the Locker

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$348
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,516
N/A
N/A
$4,516
Settled
No
kalshi

Voicemails for Isabelle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,442
N/A
N/A
$3,442
Settled
No
polymarket

Voicemails for Isabelle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$433
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Old Henry

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,397
N/A
N/A
$3,397
Settled
No
kalshi

The Hunger Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,248
N/A
N/A
$2,248
Settled
No
kalshi

White Chicks

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,706
N/A
N/A
$1,706
Settled
No
kalshi

Scream

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,346
N/A
N/A
$1,313
Settled
No
polymarket

Scream

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Scream 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$900
N/A
N/A
$900
Settled
No
kalshi

Scream 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$497
N/A
N/A
$487
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Intro

This market tracks which film will rank highest on the US Netflix Top 10 Movies list for the week ending July 28, 2026, with the aggregated consensus showing a 97.9% probability for "A Toxic Love Story" to claim the top spot across Kalshi and Polymarket. Resolution relies on Netflix's official Top 10 list at top10.netflix.com. Watch for the final rankings publication on July 28, 2026, which will determine the market outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets resolve based on the same data source and criteria: the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on July 28, 2026.Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Top 10 list at top10.netflix.com

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified movie is ranked #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published on July 28, 2026.
  • If no listed movie achieves #1 rank, all markets resolve to 'No' (Kalshi) or 'Other' (Polymarket).

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Update Delay: If Netflix fails to publish the chart by July 31, 2026, Polymarket markets resolve to 'Other'; Kalshi markets remain unresolved until publication.
  • Tie: In the rare event of a tie for #1, resolution follows Netflix's official tie-breaking methodology or the first movie listed in case of shared rank.
Timing: Resolution occurs after Netflix publishes the Top 10 US Movie chart on July 28, 2026, with Polymarket allowing until July 31, 2026, for resolution in case of delay.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 US Movie rankings published on July 28, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 27, 2026, the day before chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified movie achieves the #1 position on that published chart.