TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Closed: Jul 20, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending July 21, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on Netflix's official ranking published on top10.netflix.com, reflecting viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket define different candidate movie lists and resolution scopes. Kalshi lists 13 specific movies with no fallback for unlisted #1 movies. Polymarket includes 11 named movies, 7 undefined placeholder movies, and an "other" catch-all, plus a publication deadline contingency.Hero tip: Focus trading on the 10 movies that appear on both platforms (Enola Holmes 3, Voicemails for Isabelle, Old Henry, KPop Demon Hunters, Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea, plus The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, White Chicks, The Doorman, Heartstopper Forever on Polymarket only). Avoid Polymarket's undefined Movie A-G placeholders. Monitor Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. If the #1 movie is not on either platform's list, Kalshi has no explicit resolution path while Polymarket resolves to "Other".Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market for each of 13 specific movies (Little Brother, Enola Holmes 3, Voicemails for Isabelle, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Maternal Instinct, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Hunting Housewives, Gone Girl, The Boss Baby, KPop Demon Hunters, Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea, Nothing to Lose, Old Henry). Resolves Yes if that movie ranks #1 on Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published July 21, 2026. No resolution logic provided if a different movie ranks #1.
- Polymarket: 19 separate binary questions covering 11 named movies (Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea, Enola Holmes 3, The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Heartstopper Forever, Old Henry, White Chicks, Voicemails for Isabelle, The Doorman, KPop Demon Hunters) plus 7 undefined placeholder movies (Movie A-G) and an "other movie" option. Includes fallback: if Netflix does not publish by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to 'Other'. Key quote: 'Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET.'
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 US Movie chart published on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 20, 2026, the day before publication. The event resolves to Yes if any of the specified movies achieves the #1 ranking on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds differ from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate decentralized trader bets rather than relying on expert opinion alone. Market participants continuously update positions based on new information—release timing, social media buzz, competing titles—creating dynamic pricing that often reflects emerging sentiment faster than published reports. While analysts may rely on historical data and industry models, this market captures real-money conviction from a diverse pool of participants, sometimes revealing surprises that conventional forecasts miss. Both approaches offer value; markets excel at capturing collective intelligence on near-term outcomes.
Polymarket and Kalshi may price this outcome differently due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and platform-specific rules around market structure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences can also stem from timing—one venue may see fresh information or a surge in activity before the other, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities. User bases on each platform often have distinct risk appetites and information access, leading to divergent odds even on identical events. These spreads typically narrow as resolution approaches and traders exploit mispricings across venues.
Major catalysts include new film releases, unexpected viewership surges, celebrity news tied to featured titles, and Netflix algorithm changes affecting chart visibility. Competitor platform releases or marketing campaigns can shift audience attention, moving odds in real time. Social media trends, award announcements, and critical reviews also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, any surprise performance by an underdog title or withdrawal of a frontrunner can trigger sharp repricing. Traders monitor these signals continuously, adjusting positions as new information emerges closer to the resolution date.