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What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
kalshi
polymarket

What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?

Volume:
$863,965

Little Brother

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 7, 2026

Closed: Jul 6, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Little Brother

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$254,142
N/A
N/A
$42,669
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Little Brother

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$77,882
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Voicemails for Isabelle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$229,442
N/A
N/A
$131,007
Settled
No
polymarket

Voicemails for Isabelle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,439
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Enola Holmes 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$124,109
N/A
N/A
$54,571
Settled
No
polymarket

Enola Holmes 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$52,066
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Minions: The Rise of Gru

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$40,846
N/A
N/A
$25,253
Settled
No
kalshi

5lbs of Pressure

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,612
N/A
N/A
$19,612
Settled
No
kalshi

Despicable Me 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,390
N/A
N/A
$16,390
Settled
No
kalshi

Maternal Instinct

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,525
N/A
N/A
$9,728
Settled
No
polymarket

Maternal Instinct

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$616
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

KPop Demon Hunters

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,065
N/A
N/A
$6,065
Settled
No
polymarket

KPop Demon Hunters

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$552
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Goat

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,524
N/A
N/A
$4,524
Settled
No
polymarket

GOAT

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Office Romance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,264
N/A
N/A
$3,264
Settled
No
kalshi

Home

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,600
N/A
N/A
$2,600
Settled
No
polymarket

Talk to Me

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,237
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Spider-Man: Homecoming

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$564
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Gone Girl

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

The Choral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$214
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks which movie will rank as the number one film on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies list for the week ending July 7, 2026. Aggregating data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the consensus probability for the leading outcome stands at 90.0%. Resolution will be determined by Netflix's official Top 10 ranking published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, which reflects viewership data from the previous seven-day period. Watch for Netflix's scheduled update on July 7 at 3:00 PM ET to see which film claims the top spot based on total US views.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Candidate movie set mismatch between platforms. Polymarket includes 18 named/placeholder movies plus an explicit catch-all ("another movie"), while Kalshi lists only 10 specific movies with no catch-all provision. Five movies appear only on Kalshi (Minions: The Rise of Gru, 5lbs of Pressure, Office Romance, Home, Despicable Me 3) and are absent from Polymarket's explicit list.Hero tip: Before trading, confirm which platform's candidate list aligns with your information source. If the actual #1 movie is one of the five Kalshi-only titles, Kalshi will resolve Yes while Polymarket resolves to "another movie" (Yes). If the #1 movie is one of Polymarket's named titles but not on Kalshi's list, Polymarket resolves Yes on that title while Kalshi resolves No on all positions. Cross-platform arbitrage risk is present.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Covers 18 specific candidates (Movie A-G, Maternal Instinct, Little Brother, Talk to Me, KPop Demon Hunters, GOAT, Voicemails for Isabelle, Gone Girl, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Enola Holmes 3, The Choral) plus an explicit catch-all: "Will another movie be the top US Netflix movie this week?" Resolution source: Netflix Top 10 ranking published July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Fallback to "Other" if update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
  • Kalshi: Covers exactly 10 specific movies (Little Brother, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Goat, KPop Demon Hunters, Voicemails for Isabelle, 5lbs of Pressure, Office Romance, Home, Maternal Instinct, Despicable Me 3). Each resolves Yes if that movie is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published July 7, 2026. No explicit catch-all for unlisted titles; if #1 is not in this list, all 10 positions resolve No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 US Movie chart published on July 7, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 6, 2026, the day before the chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified movie ranks at position #1 on that chart.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these operate on crowd-sourced pricing rather than analyst models, meaning odds reflect live trader conviction rather than traditional media forecasts. Analysts typically rely on historical performance, marketing spend, and release timing, while market participants incorporate real-time viewership signals and social momentum. This market's odds can diverge significantly from pundit predictions, especially when surprise releases or viral moments shift viewer behavior mid-week.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create pricing gaps on identical outcomes. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different market mechanics, settlement timing windows, or user bases with varying information access. These differences typically narrow as resolution approaches, but can persist if one platform sees heavier volume or more informed traders on a particular outcome.

Major catalysts include surprise new releases, viral social media moments, celebrity endorsements, and real-time viewership leaks from industry trackers. Award announcements, streaming exclusivity deals, or competitor platform releases can also shift viewer attention. Mid-week Netflix viewership reports, if publicly disclosed, often trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, technical issues or platform outages affecting competitor services could redirect traffic and reshape the leaderboard before the market closes.