TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:57 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on viewership numbers and critical reception, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of factors and potentially identifying emerging trends that analysts might miss. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can quickly adapt to new information and changing sentiment. Comparing these forecasts with the market’s implied probabilities can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each show becoming the most popular. The price of each share directly reflects the probability of that show winning, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price fluctuates based on the volume of trades and the changing sentiment of participants. Higher demand for a particular show's shares will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived chance of it topping the charts.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the top global Netflix show for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on Netflix’s official rankings or widely recognized third-party data sources that track viewership and popularity. The market will settle to the show that holds the number one position on Netflix’s global top 10 list, or a comparable metric if Netflix changes its reporting methodology. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective outcome.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Unexpected releases of highly anticipated shows, major marketing campaigns by Netflix, or viral social media trends surrounding a particular series could all shift the odds. Positive or negative critical reviews, as well as early viewership data released by Netflix, can also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any news regarding cast changes or production delays for competing shows could impact their perceived chances, thereby affecting this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding potential shifts in the probabilities.
