TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Trust Me: The False Prophet
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Apr 14, 2026
Closed: Apr 13, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi provides a closed list of 11 named shows with explicit resolution criteria, while Polymarket uses an undefined placeholder 'Show F' (and multiple other undefined shows A-K) that cannot be resolved without knowing which actual Netflix shows these refer to. This creates a fundamental data integrity failure on Polymarket where the resolution source is incomplete and unresolvable.Hero tip: Do not trade Polymarket markets that reference undefined shows (Show A through Show K, Show F, etc.) until those placeholders are replaced with actual Netflix show titles. Kalshi markets are resolvable because they name specific shows explicitly. If you hold Polymarket positions on undefined shows, your market may resolve to 'Other' due to ambiguity or remain unresolved indefinitely.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides a complete, closed list of 11 explicitly named shows (Raw: 2026, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, Beauty in Black: Season 2, XO Kitty: Season 3, Virgin River: Season 7, Love on the Spectrum: Season 4, Homicide: New York: Season 2, Detective Hole: Season 1, Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1, The Predator of Seville: Limited Series, Trust Me: The False Prophet) with clear resolution criteria: 'If [named show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Apr 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' All markets resolve based on the same Netflix official source and timing.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses undefined placeholder show names (Show A, Show B, Show C, Show D, Show E, Show F, Show G, Show H, Show I, Show J, Show K) alongside some named shows (Bloodhounds: Season 2, Love on the Spectrum: Season 4, Trust Me: The False Prophet, Danny Go!: Season 1, Temptation Island: Season 10, XO Kitty: Season 3, Big Mistakes: Season 1, Something Very Bad is Going to Happen: Season 1, Bandi: Season 1). The placeholder shows cannot be resolved without knowing which actual Netflix shows they represent, creating an unresolvable ambiguity. The resolution source is the same (Netflix Top 10 on Apr 14, 2026) but the market definitions are incomplete.