TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$107,773
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, April 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi provides a closed list of 11 named shows with explicit resolution criteria, while Polymarket uses an undefined placeholder 'Show F' (and multiple other undefined shows A-K) that cannot be resolved without knowing which actual Netflix shows these refer to. This creates a fundamental data integrity failure on Polymarket where the resolution source is incomplete and unresolvable.Hero Tip:
Do not trade Polymarket markets that reference undefined shows (Show A through Show K, Show F, etc.) until those placeholders are replaced with actual Netflix show titles. Kalshi markets are resolvable because they name specific shows explicitly. If you hold Polymarket positions on undefined shows, your market may resolve to 'Other' due to ambiguity or remain unresolved indefinitely.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: Kalshi provides a complete, closed list of 11 explicitly named shows (Raw: 2026, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, Beauty in Black: Season 2, XO Kitty: Season 3, Virgin River: Season 7, Love on the Spectrum: Season 4, Homicide: New York: Season 2, Detective Hole: Season 1, Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1, The Predator of Seville: Limited Series, Trust Me: The False Prophet) with clear resolution criteria: 'If [named show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Apr 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' All markets resolve based on the same Netflix official source and timing.
- Polymarket: Outlier: Polymarket uses undefined placeholder show names (Show A, Show B, Show C, Show D, Show E, Show F, Show G, Show H, Show I, Show J, Show K) alongside some named shows (Bloodhounds: Season 2, Love on the Spectrum: Season 4, Trust Me: The False Prophet, Danny Go!: Season 1, Temptation Island: Season 10, XO Kitty: Season 3, Big Mistakes: Season 1, Something Very Bad is Going to Happen: Season 1, Bandi: Season 1). The placeholder shows cannot be resolved without knowing which actual Netflix shows they represent, creating an unresolvable ambiguity. The resolution source is the same (Netflix Top 10 on Apr 14, 2026) but the market definitions are incomplete.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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