TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.1b
24H VOL:
$217,487,446
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,300,303,450
498,643
Markets across
13,761
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,763
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$279,068
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group asks which show will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as of the update published on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. Netflix ranks shows by total global views (English-language content only), reflecting viewership from the prior week (Monday–Sunday). The resolution depends on Netflix's official publication of its ranking on top10.netflix.com by the April 10, 2026 deadline.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket diverge on market structure and scope. Kalshi offers 12 binary markets, each resolving YES if a specific show is #1, with implicit mutual exclusivity. Polymarket offers 27 binary markets including placeholder shows (Show B through Show O) and an 'Other' catch-all, creating ambiguity about whether all 27 can resolve simultaneously and how the catch-all interacts with named shows.Hero Tip:
If betting on Kalshi, you are choosing among 12 named shows with clear mutual exclusivity—exactly one will resolve YES. If betting on Polymarket, be aware that 15 of the 27 markets reference undefined placeholder shows (Show B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O) and the 'Other' catch-all may create settlement ambiguity if the #1 show is not explicitly named. Kalshi offers cleaner resolution certainty.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi structures the group as 12 mutually exclusive binary markets, each tied to a specific named show (Virgin River: Season 7, Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1, ONE PIECE: Season 2, Beauty in Black: Season 2, The Predator of Seville: Limited Series, Ms. Rachel: Season 2, Raw: 2026, Age of Attraction: Season 1, Homicide: New York: Season 2, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, Jo Nesbo's Detective Hole, XO, Kitty: Season 3). Resolution is binary per show: YES if that show is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published April 7, 2026; NO otherwise. Exactly one market resolves YES. Quote: 'If [named show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Apr 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket structures the group as 27 binary markets with mixed specificity. Markets 1–4 and 10–13, 15–17, 22 reference named shows (Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1, Virgin River: Season 7, The Predator of Seville: Limited Series, Homicide: New York: Season 2, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, Raw: 2026, XO Kitty: Season 3, ONE PIECE: Season 2, Age of Attraction: Season 1, Beauty in Black: Season 2, Ms. Rachel: Season 2). Markets 5–9, 14, 18–21, 23–26 reference undefined placeholder shows (Show E, H, I, N, O, D, C, F, K, L, B, G, J, M). Market 27 is a catch-all: 'Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week?' The resolution source is identical (Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart, April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET), but the inclusion of 15 undefined shows and an 'Other' option creates structural ambiguity about mutual exclusivity and settlement logic. Quote: 'This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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