TOTAL VOLUME:
$61.9b
24H VOL:
$249,705,498
24H TRANSACTIONS:
600,069,390
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,354,509,605
579,516
Markets across
14,317
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,116
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
50%
VS.
Kalshi:
50%
What will be the top global Netflix show this week? Odds & Prediction Markets
Closed: Mar 23, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket and Kalshi use different show rosters and resolution scopes. Polymarket includes generic placeholder shows (Show B, C, D, etc.) and an 'Other' catch-all, while Kalshi specifies a curated list of named shows with no explicit 'Other' option, creating different outcome spaces for the same underlying event.Hero Tip:
If you trade on Polymarket, your YES resolution depends on one of 19 specific outcomes including generic placeholders. On Kalshi, only 11 named shows can resolve YES. If the actual #1 show is not on Kalshi's list, Kalshi may have no YES resolution path, while Polymarket's 'Other' option (question 19) would capture it. Verify the actual top show against each platform's roster before settlement.Critical Divergence Points:
Polymarket:
Distinct stance: Polymarket resolves based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 24, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, with 19 possible outcomes including named shows (Age of Attraction, Virgin River, One Piece, etc.), generic placeholders (Show B through Show K), and an 'Other' catch-all. The market resolves to 'Other' if the update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Exactly one market in the group will resolve YES. Key quote: 'This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show' and 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other'.Kalshi:
Distinct stance: Kalshi resolves based on Netflix's official Top 10 Global Show chart published on March 24, 2026, with 11 named shows as YES outcomes (The TikTok Killer, Virgin River, A Friend a Murderer, Bridgerton, Raw, Love Is Blind, Derrick Stroup, The Dinosaurs, Age of Attraction, ONE PIECE, BTS THE COMEBACK LIVE). No explicit 'Other' or catch-all option is provided; if the #1 show is not on this list, resolution logic is undefined. Key quote: 'If [named show] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Mar 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes'.
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