TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the top global Netflix show this week?
Volume:
$95,282
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 17, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on the official Netflix top10.netflix.com update reflecting viewership data from the prior week (March 10-16, 2026), with a fallback to 'Other' if the update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Show title mismatch and scope divergence between platforms. Polymarket includes placeholder shows and an 'Other' catch-all; Kalshi specifies 12 concrete titles with no fallback. The two platforms do not share identical show lists, creating potential for conflicting resolutions if an unlisted show ranks #1.Hero Tip:
Monitor Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 17, 2026. If the #1 show is one of Kalshi's 12 specified titles, both platforms should resolve consistently. If the #1 show is not on Kalshi's list (e.g., Virgin River: Season 7, Love is Blind: The Reunion, or a completely different title), Polymarket will resolve to that show or 'Other', while Kalshi's outcome becomes ambiguous. Traders should clarify Kalshi's resolution rule for shows outside its 12 specified outcomes before the settlement date.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Offers 22 outcomes: 14 named shows (Virgin River: Season 7, Bridgerton: Season 4, Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic, The Tiktok Killer, Dynasty: The Murdochs, One Piece: Season 2, Age of Attraction, The Dinosaurs, Vladimir, Love is Blind: The Reunion, and 8 generic placeholders Show B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K) plus an 'Other' catch-all. Resolves based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 17, 2026, with fallback to 'Other' if update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".'.
- Kalshi: Offers 12 specific show titles: A Friend, a Murderer: Limited Series, The Dinosaurs: Season 1, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series, Bridgerton: Season 4, Vladimir: Limited Series, One Piece: Season 2, Raw: 2026, The Night Agent: Season 3, Love Is Blind: Ohio, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, Bruce Bruce: I Ain't Playin'. Each resolves 'Yes' if that show ranks #1 on the chart published March 17, 2026. No explicit 'Other' or fallback outcome is defined. Key quote: 'If [Show Title] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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