TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
One Piece: Season 2
- Polymarket
One Piece: Season 2 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Mar 18, 2026
Closed: Mar 16, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Total markets: 25 of 32
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as published on March 17, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on the official Netflix top10.netflix.com update reflecting viewership data from the prior week (March 10-16, 2026), with a fallback to 'Other' if the update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Show title mismatch and scope divergence between platforms. Polymarket includes placeholder shows and an 'Other' catch-all; Kalshi specifies 12 concrete titles with no fallback. The two platforms do not share identical show lists, creating potential for conflicting resolutions if an unlisted show ranks #1.Hero tip: Monitor Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 17, 2026. If the #1 show is one of Kalshi's 12 specified titles, both platforms should resolve consistently. If the #1 show is not on Kalshi's list (e.g., Virgin River: Season 7, Love is Blind: The Reunion, or a completely different title), Polymarket will resolve to that show or 'Other', while Kalshi's outcome becomes ambiguous. Traders should clarify Kalshi's resolution rule for shows outside its 12 specified outcomes before the settlement date.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Offers 22 outcomes: 14 named shows (Virgin River: Season 7, Bridgerton: Season 4, Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic, The Tiktok Killer, Dynasty: The Murdochs, One Piece: Season 2, Age of Attraction, The Dinosaurs, Vladimir, Love is Blind: The Reunion, and 8 generic placeholders Show B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K) plus an 'Other' catch-all. Resolves based on Netflix's official top10.netflix.com update on March 17, 2026, with fallback to 'Other' if update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".'.
- Kalshi: Offers 12 specific show titles: A Friend, a Murderer: Limited Series, The Dinosaurs: Season 1, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series, Bridgerton: Season 4, Vladimir: Limited Series, One Piece: Season 2, Raw: 2026, The Night Agent: Season 3, Love Is Blind: Ohio, Ms. Rachel: Season 1, Bruce Bruce: I Ain't Playin'. Each resolves 'Yes' if that show ranks #1 on the chart published March 17, 2026. No explicit 'Other' or fallback outcome is defined. Key quote: 'If [Show Title] is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'.