TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 22, 5:04 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group asks forecasters to predict which Netflix show will be the most popular globally for a given week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 list published each Tuesday, reflecting the prior week's viewership.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi focuses on specific shows, while Polymarket includes 'Other' options and a tie-breaking rule, plus a cancellation condition.Hero tip: Prioritize trading on shows explicitly listed on Kalshi. Consider the 'Other' market on Polymarket if you anticipate an unlisted show winning.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the Netflix Top 10 list published on September 22, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, with a tie-breaking rule (alphabetical order) and a cancellation condition if the update doesn't occur by September 25, 2026. Includes markets for 'Other' shows. "If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically."
- Kalshi: Resolves based on the Netflix Top 10 list published on September 22, 2026. Each market is tied to a specific show being #1. "If The Gentlemen: Season 2 is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show on the chart published on Sep 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified Netflix show occupies the number one position on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on September 22, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday, September 20, 2026. All markets close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, September 21, 2026, to align with the Tuesday chart update schedule. None of the markets imply endorsement by Netflix; references to Netflix are used descriptively and do not indicate any affiliation between Netflix and the platform hosting these markets.
Frequently asked questions
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Announcements regarding new show releases on Netflix, particularly highly anticipated series, would likely shift probabilities. Changes in viewership trends for existing shows, as reported by media outlets or data analytics firms, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected events, such as viral marketing campaigns or critical acclaim, could boost a show's popularity and drive up its price. Finally, any news regarding Netflix's overall subscriber numbers or content strategy could indirectly affect predictions in this market.