TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Gentlemen: Season 2
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group asks forecasters to predict which Netflix show will be the most popular globally during a given week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 list, measuring total views.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket specifies a precise time for the Netflix update and an alphabetical tie-breaking rule, while Kalshi only states the chart publication date without a time or tie-breaking rule.Hero tip: Consider the possibility of a tie and how alphabetical order might influence the outcome on Polymarket. Monitor the exact time of the Netflix update to align with Polymarket's resolution criteria.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the #1 show on top10.netflix.com as of September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, with alphabetical tie-breaking. If the update doesn't occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to 'Other'. "If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically."
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if a specific show is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on September 15, 2026. No time specified, and no tie-breaking rule is provided.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. If multiple shows tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the show whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on whether the specified show ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on September 15, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication. No endorsement from Netflix is implied, and references to Netflix are used descriptively. Each market exclusively evaluates its designated show's performance against the #1 position, with identical secondary rules applying uniformly across all markets.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on pre-release hype, historical data, or studio marketing spend, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. The dynamic pricing in this market can incorporate real-time information, such as early viewership numbers or social media trends, more quickly than traditional forecasts. Discrepancies between market prices and analyst predictions can present opportunities for informed traders, and often prove to be more accurate in the long run.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Early viewership data released by Netflix during the week, particularly for new releases, will be a key driver. Social media buzz and critical reviews can also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected events, such as a viral marketing campaign or a major celebrity appearance in a show, could rapidly shift probabilities. Furthermore, the release of competing content on other streaming platforms might affect viewership numbers. Traders should closely monitor these factors to anticipate potential price movements in this market.