TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
I Will Find You: Limited Series
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Closed: Jul 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
Description
This event group determines which Netflix show will rank #1 globally in the week of July 7, 2026, based on Netflix's official Top 10 TV shows list. Both Polymarket and Kalshi offer binary markets on specific show titles, with resolution tied to Netflix's published rankings reflecting viewership data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the same resolution trigger: Netflix's official #1 ranking on the July 7, 2026 published chart, with identical fallback logic for non-publication.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official top10.netflix.com global Top 10 TV shows list, published July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Ranking metric: total global views for English-language TV shows only
- Winner determination: whichever show appears in the #1 position on the published chart
- Polymarket binary markets resolve YES if the specified show is #1, NO otherwise
- Kalshi binary markets resolve YES if the specified show is #1, NO if any other show ranks #1
- If Netflix does not publish the update by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' and Kalshi markets on non-winning shows resolve to No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Non-publication fallback: If Netflix fails to update top10.netflix.com by the deadline (July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET), Polymarket's 'Other' option resolves YES; all Kalshi show-specific markets resolve NO
- Placeholder show references: Polymarket includes generic placeholders (Show A through Show G) alongside named titles; these resolve based on whatever show actually ranks #1, matching the placeholder only if that show is genuinely #1
- Scope: English-language TV only: Non-English shows and films are excluded from consideration; only English-language TV shows count toward the #1 ranking
- Tie or simultaneous release: Netflix's published ranking will show a single #1 show; if Netflix reports a tie, the show listed first in the official chart is the winner
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 Global Show chart published on July 7, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 6, 2026, the day before the chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified show ranks at position #1 on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and market microstructure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different user bases with distinct risk tolerances and information sets. Regulatory frameworks and fee structures also influence how quickly prices adjust. When spreads widen between platforms, arbitrage opportunities may emerge, though transaction costs and settlement timing can prevent instant convergence.
Major catalysts include new episode releases, celebrity news tied to competing shows, and Netflix's own promotional announcements. Real-time viewership leaks or social media momentum can shift trader sentiment rapidly. Awards buzz, critical reviews, and competitive show launches on rival platforms also influence expectations. As the resolution date approaches, early viewership reports and industry commentary typically drive the largest price moves, with late-week data becoming increasingly predictive of the final outcome.