TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
I Will Find You: Limited Series
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
Description
This event group determines which show will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list as of the week ending June 30, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's official weekly rankings published on top10.netflix.com, with resolution tied to the Tuesday, June 30, 2026 update reflecting viewership data from the prior week.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket enumerate different sets of candidate shows. Kalshi covers 10 specific shows with no fallback; Polymarket covers 19 questions including an "Other" option, creating asymmetric resolution outcomes if the #1 show falls outside Kalshi's list.Hero tip: The resolution source is unified (Netflix top10.netflix.com, June 30, 2026 update), but the market design diverges. If the actual #1 show is not among Kalshi's 10 enumerated titles, all Kalshi markets resolve No while Polymarket's "Other" resolves Yes. Verify the show identity against both platform lists before settlement to avoid disputes.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: 10 binary markets, each asking if a specific named show is #1. Covers: Salish & Jordan Matter, I Will Find You, Outlast: The Jungle, Sweet Magnolias: Season 5, Michael Jackson: The Verdict, AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS, The Witness, Raw: 2026, The Four Seasons, The Amazing Digital Circus. No catch-all for other shows.
- Polymarket: 19 questions including named shows (I Will Find You, Sweet Magnolias: Season 5, AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS, Outlast: The Jungle, The American Experiment, Ms. Rachel, Avatar: The Last Airbender, Danny Go!, The Last Ship, The Polygamist), coded placeholders (Show A-G), and crucially: 'Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week?' This allows resolution to a show not explicitly listed.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 Global Show rankings published on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, June 28, 2026. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2026, one day before chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified show achieves the #1 position on that published chart.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader bases, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which can cause price divergence on the same outcome. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform's fee structure, user demographics, and order-flow patterns influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. One venue may attract more casual bettors while the other draws sophisticated traders, leading to different implied odds on identical shows. Monitoring both platforms reveals arbitrage opportunities and signals which venue's traders hold stronger conviction.
Major catalysts include premiere announcements, celebrity news tied to competing shows, early viewership leaks, and Netflix's own promotional pushes. Award nominations or viral social media moments can shift viewer attention overnight, moving odds sharply. Release timing of new seasons or finales directly impacts weekly rankings. Competitor platform releases and real-world events affecting viewer mood also influence which show captures global attention. Traders monitor entertainment news, streaming data trackers, and social sentiment to anticipate shifts in this market.