TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Why Did I Get Married Again?
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 21, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This group asks forecasters to predict which movie will be ranked #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 list each week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 chart published on Tuesdays, with a fallback if the chart is delayed.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi creates separate markets for each potential top movie, while Polymarket asks a direct question about each movie being #1. This creates SKU risk as Kalshi's markets are only resolved if *their* specific movie is #1.Hero tip: Prioritize Polymarket markets as they reflect the overall probability of each movie being ranked #1. Be cautious with Kalshi markets due to the large number of options and conditional resolution.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves based on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart, with a tiebreaker based on alphabetical order. Includes a fallback to 'Other' if the chart is not updated by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Question: Will [Movie Name] be the top global Netflix movie this week?
- Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the specified movie is #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published on September 22, 2026. Each movie has its own market.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specific film appears in the top position on Netflix's Global Movie chart for the week ending the Sunday before September 22, 2026. The chart is published each Tuesday, so markets close at 11:59 PM ET the preceding Monday. All markets share identical secondary rules regarding chart publication timing and disclaimers stating that Netflix has not endorsed these markets or products. The resolution hinges solely on the ranking of the named film on the officially published chart for the specified week.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially outperforming individual analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by biases or limited data, whereas this market aggregates the insights of many traders. While analyst predictions can be valuable, the real-time price discovery in this market can offer a more dynamic and accurate assessment of the likelihood of different movies topping the charts. The collective intelligence displayed here can provide a unique perspective compared to traditional media or entertainment industry predictions.