TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
72 HOURS
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 4, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Aug 3, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies list for the week ending August 4, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve based on Netflix's official ranking, with specific rules for tiebreakers and late updates.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the same primary source (Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies list) with consistent tiebreaker logic (alphabetical order). The only timing divergence is Polymarket's "Other" fallback for delayed updates, which does not affect outcome determination for specific movie markets.Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Global Top 10 Movies list published on top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- Check Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies list published on August 4, 2026
- Identify the movie ranked #1; if multiple movies tie for #1, the alphabetically first title wins
- For Polymarket: If the update does not occur by August 7, 2026, the market resolves to "Other"
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Delayed Update: If Netflix delays the update past August 7, 2026, Polymarket resolves to "Other" while Kalshi markets resolve based on the eventual ranking.
- Tiebreaker: If two or more movies tie for #1, the movie whose title comes first alphabetically wins.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves based on whether a specified movie ranks #1 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published on August 4, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix updates its charts on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the preceding Monday. The August 4 chart reflects viewing data from the week ending the previous Sunday. None of these markets imply endorsement by Netflix; references to the platform are purely descriptive and not indicative of any formal affiliation with Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
Key signals that could shift this market include last-minute content drops, viral social media moments, or weekend viewing spikes following major sporting events or holidays. Any title gaining unexpected buzz — through celebrity endorsements or strong early viewership — may rapidly alter probabilities. Traders will also watch competitor releases and any platform-specific promotions that could steer audience attention in the final days.