TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
72 Hours
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 28, 2026
Closed: Jul 27, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group tracks which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies list for the week ending July 28, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve based on Netflix's official ranking, but differ in handling of missing data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the same primary data source (Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies list) and use identical ranking criteria (total global views).Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Global Top 10 Movies list published at top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- The movie ranked #1 on Netflix's Global Top 10 Movies list for the week ending July 28, 2026 determines resolution
- Ranking is based on total global views as reported by Netflix for English-language movies
- If the list isn't published by July 31, 2026, Polymarket resolves to "Other" while Kalshi markets resolve according to their individual rules
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Missing List: Polymarket resolves to "Other" if the list isn't published by July 31, 2026. Kalshi markets resolve according to their individual contract terms.
- Tie: Netflix's official ranking breaks ties; the market resolves to the movie listed in the #1 position.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 Global Movie rankings published on July 28, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 27, 2026, the day before chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified movie achieves the #1 position on that published chart.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket and Kalshi, prices can vary due to differences in user bases, liquidity, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, one platform might have deeper volume behind a particular outcome, skewing its implied probability. Additionally, event-specific news or regional viewing trends may impact each market differently, leading to divergent odds even when tracking the same question.
Key signals that could shift odds for this market include major marketing campaigns, star-studded premieres, or surprise viewing spikes driven by social media trends. Contenders gaining momentum in specific regions or those featured in Netflix’s homepage rotations may also influence trader sentiment, potentially altering the probability distribution before the market closes.