TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea
- Polymarket
Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
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Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Closed: Jul 21, 5:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending July 21, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on Netflix's official ranking published on top10.netflix.com, reflecting viewership data from the preceding week (Monday to Sunday).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket define different candidate movie lists and resolution fallback mechanisms. Kalshi specifies 10 named movies with no explicit catch-all; Polymarket includes 11 named movies, 7 placeholder entries, and an "another movie" / "Other" option. This creates potential for asymmetric outcomes if a movie outside Kalshi's list ranks #1.Hero tip: Before trading, confirm with each platform whether their candidate lists are exhaustive or illustrative. If a movie not on either platform's list ranks #1 on Netflix, Polymarket will resolve to "Other" while Kalshi's resolution path is undefined. Favor Polymarket markets for downside protection via the explicit "Other" category. Monitor for any platform amendments to candidate lists before July 21, 2026.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Specifies exactly 10 named movies (Enola Holmes 3, Voicemails for Isabelle, Little Brother, Retribution, Swapped, KPop Demon Hunters, Maternal Instinct, Paradise City, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Boss Baby). Each movie has a binary Yes/No market. No explicit fallback or "Other" category is defined. Resolution occurs based on Netflix Top 10 Global Movie chart published July 21, 2026.
- Polymarket: Includes 11 named movies (Shipwrecked: Nightmare at Sea, Enola Holmes 3, The Hunger Games, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Heartstopper Forever, Old Henry, White Chicks, Voicemails for Isabelle, The Doorman, KPop Demon Hunters) plus 7 placeholder slots (Movie A through Movie G) plus a catch-all "another movie" option. Includes explicit "Other" resolution if Netflix does not publish by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key Quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.'
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 Global Movie chart published on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 20, 2026, the day before publication. The event resolves to Yes if any of the specified movies achieves the #1 ranking on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like this one often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate decentralized trader bets rather than relying on a single expert opinion. Market prices reflect real-money incentives, making them responsive to breaking news, social media momentum, and viewing data releases that analysts may lag on. While entertainment analysts typically forecast based on historical patterns and studio marketing spend, this market incorporates live signals from thousands of participants. The continuous price discovery mechanism means odds can shift rapidly as new information emerges, sometimes outpacing formal analyst updates.
Major catalysts include Netflix's real-time viewing data releases, social media virality spikes, celebrity news tied to featured films, and competing platform releases that fragment audience attention. Weekend box office performance can indirectly signal streaming momentum, while press coverage and awards buzz often precede ranking shifts. New film releases or surprise removals from the Netflix catalog can reshape trader expectations overnight. Additionally, any official Netflix announcements about ranking methodology or data transparency could trigger repricing across this market.