TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Enola Holmes 3
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Closed: Jul 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending July 14, 2026. Both platforms resolve based on Netflix's official ranking published on top10.netflix.com, reflecting viewership data from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Candidate movie set differs between platforms (Polymarket includes 19 outcomes with catch-all; Kalshi lists exactly 10 named movies with no fallback). Polymarket specifies explicit "Other" resolution if Netflix fails to publish by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; Kalshi does not address non-publication or unlisted winners.Hero tip: On Polymarket, you are protected by the "Other" outcome if Netflix does not publish or if an unlisted movie ranks #1. On Kalshi, the resolution is ambiguous in both scenarios. If you believe a movie outside Kalshi's 10-name list will rank #1, or if you expect Netflix to miss the July 17 deadline, favor Polymarket. Cross-check Kalshi's official rules for fallback resolution before committing capital.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: 19 candidate outcomes: 10 named movies (Enola Holmes 3, Little Brother, Hamnet, Voicemails for Isabelle, Spider-Man: Homecoming, KPop Demon Hunters, Gone Girl, Retribution, Swapped, Maternal Instinct), 7 placeholder movies (Movie A through Movie G), and 1 catch-all (another movie). Explicit fallback: If top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, market resolves to Other.
- Kalshi: 10 named movies only: Enola Holmes 3, Voicemails for Isabelle, Little Brother, Retribution, Swapped, KPop Demon Hunters, Maternal Instinct, Paradise City, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Boss Baby. No catch-all outcome, no explicit fallback for non-publication or unlisted winners.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 Global Movie chart published on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending Sunday, July 13, 2026. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, July 13, 2026, one day before chart publication. The #1 ranked film on that specific chart determines the winning outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds are generated by traders risking real capital, which often produces faster price discovery than traditional analyst reports. Unlike published forecasts, this market updates continuously as new data—box office performance, social media buzz, and Netflix release schedules—becomes available. Analysts may rely on historical trends and demographic modeling, while traders incorporate breaking news and peer sentiment in real time. The result is that odds here can diverge meaningfully from pundit predictions, especially when unexpected releases or viewing surges occur mid-week.
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform operates under distinct market rules, user bases, and liquidity conditions. Kalshi and Polymarket may attract traders with different information sets or risk tolerances, leading to price gaps even on the same underlying event. Regulatory frameworks and order-matching engines also vary, which can create arbitrage opportunities. Additionally, one platform may see larger volume spikes around key Netflix announcements or release dates, temporarily moving odds ahead of the other. These spreads typically narrow as resolution approaches and traders exploit mispricings.
Major catalysts include Netflix's release schedule announcements, surprise drops of high-profile films, and real-time viewership trends reported by industry trackers. Celebrity news, award nominations, or viral social media moments can rapidly shift viewer interest and alter odds. Competing platform releases or major sports or cultural events may also redirect streaming attention. Early-week viewing data leaks or Netflix's own promotional pushes can signal which title is gaining momentum. Traders monitor all these signals closely, repricing odds dynamically as new information emerges before the final weekly rankings are published.