TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Enola Holmes 3
- Polymarket
Enola Holmes 3 - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 7, 7:59 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank #1 on Netflix's global Top 10 movies list for the week ending July 6, 2026, based on the official update published on July 7, 2026. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are betting on the same underlying resolution source: Netflix's official global rankings as of a specific publication date.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket includes an explicit "Other" fallback and publication deadline contingency (July 10, 11:59 PM ET), while Kalshi defines only 10 specific movie outcomes with no stated fallback logic. Additionally, the candidate movie sets differ between platforms, creating potential for a movie to rank #1 that is covered by one platform but not the other.Hero tip: Polymarket offers clearer risk management via the "Other" option and publication deadline protection. Kalshi traders should verify that the actual #1 movie on July 7 is in Kalshi's 10-title list before settlement; if not, resolution may be disputed or cancelled. Cross-platform arbitrage is possible if the #1 movie appears in only one platform's candidate set.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Includes explicit "Other" option and publication deadline fallback. If Netflix does not update top10.netflix.com by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other". Candidate set includes named movies (Talk to Me, Gone Girl, Little Brother, GOAT, Enola Holmes 3, KPop Demon Hunters, The Choral, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Voicemails for Isabelle, Maternal Instinct) plus generic placeholders (Movie A-G). Key Quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other"'.
- Kalshi: Defines 10 specific movie outcomes (Turbo, The Creator, 5lbs of Pressure, Swapped, KPop Demon Hunters, Voicemails for Isabelle, Office Romance, Little Brother, Maternal Instinct, The Contractor) with binary Yes/No resolution per title. No explicit fallback, publication deadline contingency, or "Other" option stated. Resolution logic is conditional: 'If [Movie] is #1... then resolves to Yes', implying No if not #1, but does not address missing data or publication failure.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 Global Movie chart published on July 7, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 6, 2026, the day before the chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified movie ranks at position #1 on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, financial incentives, and crowd intelligence rather than relying solely on historical data or editorial judgment. While analysts may rely on release timing, marketing spend, and genre trends, this market reflects live belief updates as new information emerges. The financial stakes in prediction markets tend to reward accuracy, making odds a complementary signal to media forecasts—particularly useful when consensus is uncertain or rapidly shifting.
On Polymarket, traders set odds through order-book mechanics and liquidity pools, with prices reflecting the marginal buyer and seller at any moment. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences can arise from distinct user bases, fee structures, marketing reach, and the timing of when new information reaches each venue. Lower liquidity on one platform may also allow larger trades to move prices more dramatically, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both sides.
Major catalysts include surprise Netflix releases, viral social media moments, celebrity endorsements, and real-time viewership reports from third-party trackers. Award nominations or critical acclaim can shift viewer interest overnight. Competitive releases on rival platforms, technical issues affecting streaming, and shifts in regional viewing patterns also influence odds. Early weekly rankings and subscriber engagement data often trigger repricing as traders update their models closer to the resolution date.