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402,751

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What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
kalshi
polymarket

What will be the #2 US Netflix show this week?

Volume:
$37,654

Crew Girl: Season 1

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 4:56 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Crew Girl: Season 1

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$9,309
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Crew Girl: Season 1

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,638
N/A
N/A
$5,116
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Jo Koy: Blue in the Face

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,498
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,792
N/A
N/A
$3,224
Settled
No
polymarket

Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,737
N/A
N/A
$3,279
Settled
No
polymarket

Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

The Gentlemen: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,289
N/A
N/A
$2,289
Settled
No
kalshi

I Survived a Serial Killer: Season 1

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,472
N/A
N/A
$1,412
Settled
No
polymarket

I Survived a Serial Killer: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Instadocs: The Decoy Plane

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,450
N/A
N/A
$1,450
Settled
No
kalshi

Beauty in Black: Season 3

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$832
N/A
N/A
$832
Settled
No
kalshi

The Gentlemen: Season 2

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$799
N/A
N/A
$714
Settled
No
polymarket

The Gentlemen: Season 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$273
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Earle Meets World: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$140
Settled
No
kalshi

The Doll: Season 1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
kalshi

Stranger Things: Tales From 85: Season 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$110
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
No
kalshi

Danny Go!: Season 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

Raw: 2026 - September 7, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ms. Rachel: Season 1

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Show E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Description

This group asks forecasters to predict which Netflix show will be ranked #2 in the US for the week leading up to September 22, 2026. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 list published on top10.netflix.com.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi markets are specific to individual shows, while Polymarket includes 'Show X' questions and an 'Other' option, creating SKU risk and a broader resolution scope.Hero tip: Focus on the most likely contenders listed on both platforms, but be aware that Polymarket's 'Other' option introduces additional uncertainty. Consider the probability of a show not listed on Kalshi being #2.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket asks specifically if a listed show *will be* #2, and also includes a question for 'another show' to be #2, allowing for outcomes not explicitly listed. Question: Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' if a specific show is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 list. If 'Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1' is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Sep 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

Each market resolves to 'Yes' if its specified show ranks #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on September 22, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with charts updating on Tuesdays. All markets close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication. No endorsement from Netflix is implied; references are purely descriptive. The outcome depends solely on Netflix's official chart ranking for that week.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective factors or pre-release hype, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who have skin in the game. The prices on Polymarket and Kalshi are driven by real money, incentivizing participants to make informed decisions. This can lead to more accurate predictions, especially in dynamic situations like streaming viewership where real-time data is crucial. Discrepancies can arise if analysts underestimate the impact of word-of-mouth or unexpected viral trends.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected renewals or cancellations of competing shows could shift viewership. Positive or negative critical reception of new releases could also drive changes in the odds. Social media buzz and viral trends have a substantial impact on streaming popularity, and could quickly alter the market. Major marketing campaigns by Netflix could also influence viewership. Any significant news related to the leading contenders will likely cause fluctuations in trading volume and price adjustments in this market until it resolves.