TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Instadocs: The Decoy Plane
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Sep 14, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which TV show will be the #2 most popular on Netflix in the United States for the week ending September 15, 2026. Currently, the consensus probability that “Instadocs: The Decoy Plane” will achieve this ranking is 99.2%, while “Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1” is at 0.7%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on the official Netflix Top 10 list published on top10.netflix.com. Keep an eye on the Netflix Top 10 update scheduled for September 15, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, as this will reveal the viewership data for the relevant period.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers markets for specific shows, while Polymarket includes a catch-all 'another show' option, creating SKU risk and potential for ambiguity.Hero tip: Focus on the most likely contenders and be aware that a less-discussed show could win if the top contenders underperform. Consider the 'another show' option on Polymarket as a hedge.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket offers markets for specific shows, and also a market for 'another show' being #2. Resolution is based on the Netflix Top 10 list published on top10.netflix.com, with ties broken alphabetically. "If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
- Kalshi: Kalshi lists each show as a separate market. Each market resolves to YES if that specific show is ranked #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US show chart published on September 15, 2026.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on September 15, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Each market corresponds to a specific show, and the outcome is determined by whether that show occupies the #2 position on the chart. Trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart publication to ensure fair resolution. None of these markets are endorsed by Netflix, and all references to the platform are used descriptively without implying affiliation or approval.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may rely on subjective factors and pre-existing biases, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders incentivized to make accurate predictions. The aggregated probabilities on Polymarket and Kalshi can be seen as a real-time assessment of the likelihood of each show being #2, potentially providing a more accurate signal than static analyst reports. Discrepancies can highlight areas where the market perceives information differently.