TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
My Life with The Walter Boys: Season 3
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Vol.
·
Resolved Aug 11, 2026
Closed: Aug 10, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
The Idaho Murders: College Nightmare: Season 1
Description
This event group tracks predictions about which television show will rank #2 on the US Netflix Top 10 list for the week ending August 11, 2026. Multiple markets across different platforms are tracking the same outcome but with slightly different resolution rules.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on August 11, 2026, with ties broken by alphabetical orderPrimary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- The winning show will be the one ranked #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on August 11, 2026
- Ties for #2 will be broken by alphabetical order of the show titles
- If none of the listed shows occupy the #2 position, markets resolve to 'No' (Kalshi) or 'Other' (Polymarket)
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Chart Delay: If the Netflix chart is not published by August 14, 2026, Polymarket markets resolve to 'Other'; Kalshi markets would likely remain unresolved until publication
- Multiple Shows Tied: When multiple shows tie for #2, the show that comes first alphabetically will be considered the #2 show
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published on August 11, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. Each market corresponds to a specific show or season, with resolution set to 'Yes' if that entry occupies the #2 position on the chart. Markets close at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication to ensure fairness. While multiple markets exist for different titles, only one can ultimately resolve as 'Yes,' as the #2 position can be held by only one show. All references to Netflix are strictly descriptive and imply no endorsement or partnership.