TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Little House on the Prairie: Season 1
- Kalshi
Little House on the Prairie: Season 1 - Kalshi
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 21, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 20, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group predicts which TV show will rank #2 on Netflix's official US Top 10 shows list for the week ending July 21, 2026. Both platforms offer multiple binary markets covering specific show candidates, with resolution tied to Netflix's published rankings on top10.netflix.com.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the identical resolution source (Netflix's official Top 10 US Show ranking published July 21, 2026) and identical resolution logic (whichever show ranks #2 resolves Yes for that show's market).Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows list published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by Netflix's official ranking of the #2 US TV show on the chart published July 21, 2026
- The ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix for TV shows
- Exactly one show will rank #2; the corresponding binary market resolves Yes, all others resolve No
- If multiple shows tie for #2 position, the show listed first by Netflix is the resolution target
- If the Netflix update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi resolution mechanism is not specified but assumes same source availability
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix update delay or non-publication: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if top10.netflix.com does not update by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback; assume same deadline applies.
- Tie for #2 position: If two shows tie in views for #2, use Netflix's published ranking order (first listed) as the tiebreaker.
- Show not in candidate list: Polymarket includes a catch-all market (another show be #2); Kalshi does not explicitly include this, creating a minor scope difference but not a logical contradiction.
- Vague show names (Show A, B, C, etc.): Polymarket includes markets for Show A through Show G without defining them; these are placeholder markets and will resolve based on Netflix's actual ranking if those placeholders match real show names.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 US Show chart published on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 20, 2026, the day before publication. The event resolves to Yes if any of the specified shows achieves the #2 ranking on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they reflect live trader conviction rather than static editorial predictions. Analysts may rely on historical performance or production quality, while market participants continuously update their views based on real-time viewership signals, social media momentum, and Netflix's algorithmic promotion. Markets aggregate dispersed information efficiently, sometimes surfacing emerging shows before mainstream coverage catches up. However, analyst commentary can also influence market sentiment, creating feedback loops. For this event, comparing the odds here to entertainment industry reports offers a useful reality check on consensus expectations.
Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in trader composition, liquidity depth, and fee structures across venues. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Smaller or more specialized trader bases on one platform can drive temporary mispricings, while differences in market design—such as order-book mechanics versus automated market makers—affect price discovery speed. Geographic and regulatory constraints may also limit participation on one venue relative to the other. These gaps typically narrow as informed traders arbitrage between platforms, but they can persist if one venue attracts more entertainment-focused speculators while the other draws data-driven quants.
Major catalysts include Netflix's promotional pushes, celebrity news tied to featured shows, and real-time viewership data releases from tracking firms like Nielsen or FlixPatrol. New episode drops, season finales, or surprise releases can rapidly shift viewer attention and alter rankings. Social media virality, awards buzz, and mainstream media coverage also influence audience behavior. Competitive releases on rival platforms may fragment viewership and affect which shows climb the charts. Additionally, changes in Netflix's algorithm or ranking methodology could impact how shows are positioned. Traders should watch entertainment news outlets and Netflix's own announcements for signals that could reshape this week's top-two landscape.