TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
I Will Find You: Limited Series
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 14, 2026
Closed: Jul 13, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group predicts which show will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list as published on July 14, 2026. Both platforms are betting on the same underlying fact: Netflix's official ranking for that specific date, measured by total US viewership.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms reference the identical Netflix Top 10 US Show chart published July 14, 2026, with consistent show candidates and measurement basis (total US viewership). The only minor divergence is Polymarket's explicit fallback to Other if the update fails by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, whereas Kalshi does not specify this contingency.Primary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 official rankings at top10.netflix.com, chart published July 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which show Netflix officially ranks as #2 on the US TV shows list in the July 14, 2026 update
- Ranking is based on total views in the United States as reported by Netflix
- If the show is one of the named candidates (Worst Neighbor Ever Season 1, I Will Find You, Avatar: The Last Airbender Season 2, Sullivan's Crossing Season 4, Salish & Jordan Matter Season 2, Ms. Rachel Season 1, The Last Ship Season 1, The Polygamist Season 1, Louis C.K. Ridiculous, Raw 2026, Little House on the Prairie Season 9, Danny Go Season 1, Avatar: The Last Airbender Season 1), that market resolves Yes
- If the #2 show is not among the named candidates, it resolves to the catch-all category (Other on Polymarket, or implicitly No on Kalshi)
- Exactly one show will occupy the #2 position; all other markets resolve No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix update failure or delay: Polymarket explicitly resolves to Other if the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a contingency; in practice, if Netflix fails to publish, both platforms would likely cancel or extend the resolution deadline by mutual agreement.
- Tie or co-ranking: Netflix's official ranking methodology produces a single #2 position. If Netflix reports a tie, the show listed first in the official ranking is treated as #2.
- Show name or title variation: Resolution uses the exact show titles as listed by Netflix on July 14, 2026. Minor variations (e.g., Season numbering, subtitle formatting) must match Netflix's official listing.
- Polymarket catch-all categories: Polymarket includes Show A through Show G and Other as catch-all options. These resolve Yes only if the #2 show is not among the explicitly named candidates and matches the vague category definition.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 17, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
If Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If I Will Find You: Limited Series is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Sullivan's Crossing: Season 4 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 2 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Raw: 2026 - June 29, 2026 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Polygamist: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Louis C.K.: Ridiculous is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If The Last Ship: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ms. Rachel: Season 1 is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Show on the chart published on Jul 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets like those tracked here price outcomes through real-money incentives, which often incorporate signals faster than traditional analyst consensus. Entertainment forecasts from media analysts tend to rely on historical viewership patterns and promotional spend, while this market aggregates live trader conviction across multiple platforms. Divergence typically emerges when breaking news, cast announcements, or viral moments shift viewer behavior mid-week. Market odds can outpace analyst updates during volatile periods, though both approaches struggle with Netflix's opaque ranking methodology and the unpredictability of cultural moments.
Polymarket and Kalshi operate under distinct regulatory frameworks, contract specifications, and trader demographics, which naturally produces pricing divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's binary structure and US-regulated environment may attract different risk profiles than Polymarket's global, AMM-based model. Liquidity depth, fee structures, and the exact wording of outcome definitions also influence how each platform's traders value competing Netflix shows. These gaps create opportunities for arbitrageurs and reflect genuine uncertainty about which show will ultimately claim the #2 slot.
Major catalysts include new episode releases, celebrity news tied to competing shows, viral social media moments, and Netflix's own promotional pushes. Award nominations or critical reviews can shift viewer interest mid-week. Competing entertainment events—sports broadcasts, major film releases, or cultural moments—may cannibalize viewership. Platform outages or technical issues affecting streaming could alter viewing patterns. Real-time viewership data leaks or industry reporting on early-week trends often trigger sharp repricing. Traders should monitor entertainment news outlets and Netflix's own social channels for signals that could reshape the competitive landscape before the final ranking.