TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
I Will Find You: Limited Series
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Latest in Entertainment
Closed: Jul 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
Description
This event group predicts which show will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending June 30, 2026, based on the official update published on July 7, 2026. Both platforms resolve to the same source (top10.netflix.com) and the same resolution date, with mutually exclusive outcomes across named shows plus an 'Other' or catch-all category.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the same official source (Netflix top10.netflix.com), same publication date (July 7, 2026), and same ranking metric (total US views for TV shows), ensuring consistent and deterministic resolution across all markets.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows ranking published on top10.netflix.com on July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which show Netflix officially ranks as #2 on the US Top 10 TV shows list in the update published July 7, 2026
- Ranking is based on total views in the United States during the measurement period (Monday to Sunday of the previous week)
- The market outcome corresponding to the #2-ranked show resolves Yes; all other outcomes resolve No
- If multiple markets name the same show, only one will resolve Yes (the one matching Netflix's official title and season designation)
- Polymarket includes an 'Other' option that resolves Yes if the #2 show is not explicitly listed among the named options
- Kalshi markets do not include an explicit 'Other' option; if the #2 show is not listed, all Kalshi markets resolve No
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Update Delay or Non-Publication: If Netflix does not publish the Top 10 update by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi markets would resolve No by default, as none of the specified shows would be confirmed as #2.
- Title or Season Mismatch: If Netflix's official title differs from the market description (e.g., subtitle variation, season numbering), the market operator must match based on the underlying show identity. Exact string matching is not required if the show is unambiguously identifiable.
- Placeholder Show Names: Polymarket includes generic placeholders (Show A through Show G) and Kalshi includes shows not listed on Polymarket (The Polygamist, Raw: 2026, Oasis, Danny Go!). These are mutually exclusive categories; only one platform's outcome can resolve Yes if the #2 show matches one of these names.
- Mutual Exclusivity: Exactly one show will rank #2. All market outcomes are mutually exclusive. If Show X resolves Yes on one platform, all other outcomes across both platforms resolve No.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 US Show chart published on July 7, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 6, 2026, the day before the chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified show ranks at position #2 on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create price gaps on the same outcome. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have slightly different market mechanics—order-book depth, settlement timing, or user interface friction—that influence how quickly new information gets priced in. Additionally, traders on one platform may have stronger conviction or better information flow about Netflix's weekly rankings, leading to temporary mispricings. These spreads typically narrow as resolution approaches, but they create opportunities for alert traders to identify undervalued positions.
Major catalysts include Netflix's weekly viewership announcements, surprise show releases or cancellations, and shifts in social media buzz or critical reviews. Celebrity news tied to competing shows, algorithm changes that boost certain titles, and competitive releases from other platforms can all reshape viewer attention. Real-time viewership data leaks or industry reporting on streaming performance will likely trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, any changes to Netflix's ranking methodology or unexpected chart volatility could create trading opportunities. Monitor entertainment news outlets and Netflix's own social channels for early signals.