TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2
- Kalshi
Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 2 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 30, 2026
Closed: Jun 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
AMERICA'S SWEETHEARTS: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders: Season 3
Description
This event group predicts which show will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending June 30, 2026. Both platforms reference the same official Netflix ranking published on June 30, 2026, at 3:00 PM ET, based on total US viewership data.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms resolve to the same factual outcome: whichever show Netflix officially ranks as #2 on June 30, 2026, based on total US viewership.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows ranking published at top10.netflix.com on June 30, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: June 30, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Metric is total views in the United States for TV shows only, as reported by Netflix
- The show ranked in the #2 position on that date resolves all related markets
- Kalshi lists 10 specific shows as potential outcomes; Polymarket lists named shows plus placeholder categories (Show A-G) and an 'Other' catch-all
- Both platforms recognize the same set of candidate shows, though Polymarket's structure is more granular with explicit 'Other' resolution
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix publication delay or failure: Polymarket explicitly resolves to 'Other' if the update does not occur by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify a fallback, creating ambiguity if Netflix fails to publish on schedule.
- Tie for #2 position: Neither platform addresses how a tie would be resolved. Netflix's official ranking should break ties, but the resolution rules do not specify the tiebreaker method.
- Show not in candidate list: If a show not listed in either platform's candidates ranks #2, Polymarket resolves to 'Other' (via catch-all); Kalshi's outcome is undefined and would require discretionary resolution.
- Placeholder show names (Show A-G): Polymarket includes ambiguous placeholder categories (Show A, B, C, D, E, F, G) with no definition. These appear to be template artifacts and should be clarified before settlement.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix show. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for TV shows. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is based on Netflix's official Top 10 US Show rankings published on Tuesday, June 30, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, June 28, 2026. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2026, one day before chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified show achieves the #2 position on that published chart.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi operate under different market rules, user bases, and liquidity profiles, which can create pricing gaps on the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi's regulatory framework and order-matching engine may attract institutional traders, while Polymarket's design draws retail crypto-native participants. Differences in how each platform defines the #2 ranking, timing of weekly updates, or settlement mechanics can also shift odds. Monitoring both venues helps you identify arbitrage opportunities or confirm where the broader prediction market consensus truly sits.
Major catalysts include new Netflix releases, season premieres of popular shows, and shifts in subscriber viewing habits. Award announcements, celebrity news tied to featured titles, and viral social media moments can rapidly change viewership patterns. Marketing campaigns and Netflix's own promotional pushes for specific shows also influence rankings. Additionally, competitive releases on other streaming platforms may redirect viewers, indirectly affecting Netflix's top positions. Tracking entertainment news, Netflix's weekly top 10 updates, and social media sentiment will help you anticipate market moves before resolution.