TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 20, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 20, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often rely on pre-release buzz, critic reviews, and historical performance, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders reacting to real-time data and potentially insider information. Discrepancies between the two can highlight situations where the market anticipates a different outcome than conventional wisdom suggests. It’s important to remember that both approaches have their strengths and weaknesses when trying to predict the popularity of streaming content.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous, decentralized exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each movie's probability of being the number two film. The price of each share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders buy shares in a particular movie, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market odds reflect the most up-to-date collective intelligence of participants.
This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on determining which movie held the number two spot on Netflix in the US for the majority of the week in question. Data will be sourced from publicly available rankings and viewership reports to ensure an accurate and transparent outcome. The market will then settle based on which film meets this criterion.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected critical acclaim or negative reviews for a newly released film could quickly shift trader sentiment. Major social media trends or viral marketing campaigns could also drive increased viewership for a specific movie. Furthermore, Netflix's own promotional efforts, such as featuring a film prominently on its homepage, could influence its ranking. Any significant news or events related to the cast or creators of the films in contention could also move this market before Oct 21, 2026.
