TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 4:55 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, October 13, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by October 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. While analysts may rely on pre-release buzz and historical data, this market incorporates real-time betting behavior that can quickly adjust to unexpected developments. It’s common to see discrepancies between expert predictions and the probabilities expressed in this market, especially as new information becomes available. This difference in perspective can be a valuable signal for informed decision-making.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the #2 US Netflix movie for the week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available data from Netflix’s top 10 lists or similar sources that track movie viewership. The market will then settle to 100% probability for the correct outcome, and 0% for all others. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will receive a payout based on the final price of their shares.
Several signals could significantly move this market before Oct 13, 2026. Unexpected critical reception of newly released movies, major social media trends, or even significant marketing pushes by Netflix could all influence viewership and therefore the probabilities. A surprise drop in viewership for a currently popular film, or a surge in interest for a less-hyped title, would also likely cause shifts in the market. Keep an eye on entertainment news and social media chatter for potential catalysts that could impact the outcome of this market.
