TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.6b
24H VOL:
$283,259,638
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,235,549,422
505,521
Markets across
13,661
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,892
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$29,677
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's official US Top 10 Movies chart as of the update published on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET. The resolution is based on Netflix's reported total viewership data for the previous week (Monday to Sunday). Both Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing individual binary outcomes for specific movie titles, with Polymarket also offering an 'other' catch-all option.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi and Polymarket differ in fallback handling and non-resolution triggers. Kalshi lists 13 specific movies with no explicit 'other' clause; Polymarket includes a catch-all 'another movie' option and a platform-failure resolution rule (resolves to 'Other' if Netflix does not publish by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET). Polymarket also contains placeholder movie titles ('Movie A' through 'Movie O') whose validity is unclear.Hero Tip:
Before settlement, obtain written confirmation from both platforms on: (1) whether an unlisted movie ranking #2 resolves to 'other' or remains unresolved on Kalshi; (2) whether Polymarket's placeholder movies are valid outcomes or test data; (3) the exact treatment if Netflix's April 7 update is delayed past April 10, 11:59 PM ET.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: 13 named movies listed as Yes-resolution outcomes (Anaconda, The Bad Guys 2, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man, War Machine, The Creator, The Bad Guardian, Sisu: Road to Revenge, Gaslit By My Husband: The Morgan Metzer Story, KPop Demon Hunters, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, The Bad Guys: The Series, The Truth and Tragedy of Moriah Wilson). No explicit 'other' or fallback clause; unclear how unlisted movies are handled.
- Polymarket: Includes 13 named movies plus 15 placeholder titles ('Movie A' through 'Movie O'), a catch-all 'another movie' option, and an explicit non-resolution trigger: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to Other.' Placeholder movies lack real-world referents and may be data errors.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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