TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$230,557,910
24H TRANSACTIONS:
531,611,392
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,202,344,730
501,342
Markets across
13,602
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,822
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
Volume:
$336,682
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group determines which movie will rank as #2 on Netflix's official US Top 10 Movies list for the week ending March 17, 2026. Resolution is based on Netflix's published rankings reflecting total US viewership data, with a fallback to 'Other' if the official update does not occur by March 20, 2026.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket uses undefined placeholder movie names (Movie A-K) alongside real titles, while Kalshi specifies only concrete films. This creates candidate set ambiguity and different fallback logic (Polymarket allows 'Other'; Kalshi does not).Hero Tip:
Clarify with Polymarket whether Movie A-K are aliases for specific real films or truly open-ended slots. If aliases, request the mapping. If open-ended, Polymarket's market is more inclusive but harder to predict; Kalshi's is narrower but more concrete. Avoid positions that depend on the interpretation of placeholder names.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Candidate set includes 19 questions spanning named films (Louis Theroux, Jobs, War Machine, Nobody 2, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kpop Demon Hunters) and 11 undefined placeholders (Movie A-K). Resolution source is Netflix Top 10 US Movies list published March 17, 2026. Fallback to 'Other' if no update by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key Quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".'
- Kalshi: Candidate set is fixed to 12 named films (KPop Demon Hunters, Jurassic World: Dominion, Joe's College Road Trip, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Deepwater Horizon, Jurassic World Rebirth, Jurassic World, War Machine, Trap House, Trolls, Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere, Nuremberg). Resolution source is Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published March 17, 2026. No explicit fallback or 'Other' outcome defined. Key Quote: 'If [named movie] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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