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What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
polymarket
kalshi

What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

Volume:
$336,682

Nuremberg

 - Kalshi

Nuremberg - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 18, 2026

Closed: Mar 17, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Nuremberg

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$13,584
N/A
N/A
$10,069
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Jurassic World Rebirth

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$87,476
N/A
N/A
$73,220
Settled
No
polymarket

Jurassic World Rebirth

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,351
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

War Machine

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,007
N/A
N/A
$74,309
Settled
No
polymarket

War Machine

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$54,168
N/A
N/A
$54,168
Settled
No
kalshi

Trap House

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,819
N/A
N/A
$25,295
Settled
No
polymarket

Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Trolls

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,889
N/A
N/A
$1,493
Settled
No
kalshi

Deepwater Horizon

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,694
N/A
N/A
$10,694
Settled
No
kalshi

KPop Demon Hunters

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,621
N/A
N/A
$8,621
Settled
No
polymarket

Kpop Demon Hunters

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,393
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Nobody 2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Jurassic World: Dominion

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,476
N/A
N/A
$4,476
Settled
No
polymarket

Jobs

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,224
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Joe’s College Road Trip

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,594
N/A
N/A
$1,594
Settled
No
kalshi

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,477
N/A
N/A
$1,477
Settled
No
kalshi

Jurassic World

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,296
N/A
N/A
$1,296
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 30

Description

This event group determines which movie will rank as #2 on Netflix's official US Top 10 Movies list for the week ending March 17, 2026. Resolution is based on Netflix's published rankings reflecting total US viewership data, with a fallback to 'Other' if the official update does not occur by March 20, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses undefined placeholder movie names (Movie A-K) alongside real titles, while Kalshi specifies only concrete films. This creates candidate set ambiguity and different fallback logic (Polymarket allows 'Other'; Kalshi does not).Hero tip: Clarify with Polymarket whether Movie A-K are aliases for specific real films or truly open-ended slots. If aliases, request the mapping. If open-ended, Polymarket's market is more inclusive but harder to predict; Kalshi's is narrower but more concrete. Avoid positions that depend on the interpretation of placeholder names.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Candidate set includes 19 questions spanning named films (Louis Theroux, Jobs, War Machine, Nobody 2, Jurassic World Rebirth, Kpop Demon Hunters) and 11 undefined placeholders (Movie A-K). Resolution source is Netflix Top 10 US Movies list published March 17, 2026. Fallback to 'Other' if no update by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Key Quote: 'If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by March 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".'
  • Kalshi: Candidate set is fixed to 12 named films (KPop Demon Hunters, Jurassic World: Dominion, Joe's College Road Trip, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Deepwater Horizon, Jurassic World Rebirth, Jurassic World, War Machine, Trap House, Trolls, Louis Theroux: Inside The Manosphere, Nuremberg). Resolution source is Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart published March 17, 2026. No explicit fallback or 'Other' outcome defined. Key Quote: 'If [named movie] is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Mar 17, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.