TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
The Seemingly Perfect Family
- Polymarket
The Seemingly Perfect Family - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Closed: Sep 22, 4:56 PM EST
Polymarket
The AI Doc: Or How I Became an Apocaloptimist
Description
This group asks which movie will be the second most popular on Netflix in the US during a specific week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 list published on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, and reported viewership from the prior week (Monday to Sunday).
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers markets for each potential #2 movie, while Polymarket includes a catch-all 'another movie' option, creating SKU risk and differing market granularity.Hero tip: Focus on the probability of specific movies being #2, and consider the impact of the 'another movie' option on Polymarket when assessing overall market dynamics.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Each market resolves to Yes if the specified movie is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart published on September 22, 2026. "If Why Did I Get Married Again? is #2 on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie on the chart published on Sep 22, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes."
- Polymarket: Markets ask if a specific movie will be #2, and also includes a market for 'another movie' being #2. Resolves based on the Netflix Top 10 list published on September 22, 2026, with ties broken alphabetically. "Question: Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?"
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
The event determines whether any of the listed films will occupy the #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart in the week ending Sunday, September 20, 2026, with the chart being published on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific film, and resolution depends solely on that film's ranking on the officially published chart date. All markets close at 11:59 PM ET on Monday, September 21, 2026, to align with chart update timing. Neither Netflix nor Kalshi endorses these markets, and references to Netflix are purely descriptive.