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What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
polymarket
kalshi

What will be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?

Volume:
$44,160

A Toxic Love Story

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 3, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

A Toxic Love Story

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,568
N/A
N/A
$10,740
Settled
Yes
polymarket

A Toxic Love Story

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,897
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

72 HOURS

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,869
N/A
N/A
$7,419
Settled
No
polymarket

72 Hours

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Desire

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,199
N/A
N/A
$5,199
Settled
No
kalshi

Voicemails for Isabelle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,415
N/A
N/A
$1,415
Settled
No
polymarket

Voicemails for Isabelle

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$380
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Ordinary Angels

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,005
N/A
N/A
$930
Settled
No
polymarket

Ordinary Angels

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Elize: Shadows of a Woman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$980
N/A
N/A
$727
Settled
No
polymarket

Elize: Shadows of a Woman

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Sniper: No Nation

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Sniper: No Nation

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$414
N/A
N/A
$414
Settled
No
polymarket

Minions

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$421
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

KPop Demon Hunters

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

A Quiet Place: Day One

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

The Boss Baby

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$300
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

The Hunger Games

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$294
N/A
N/A
$294
Settled
No
kalshi

Wicked: For Good

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
polymarket

Furious 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie A

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Movie E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 28

Description

This event group tracks which movie will rank #2 on the US Netflix Top 10 Movies list for the week ending August 4, 2026. Markets across Kalshi and Polymarket resolve based on Netflix's official chart ranking.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets resolve based on the same official Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart published on August 4, 2026, using identical ranking and tie-breaking rules.Primary resolution logic: Netflix's official Top 10 Movies list at top10.netflix.com

Core resolution logic:

  • The official Netflix Top 10 US Movies chart published on August 4, 2026 determines the #2 movie
  • Rankings are based on total US views for the week
  • Ties are broken by alphabetical order of movie titles
  • If the chart is not published by August 7, 2026, markets resolve to "Other" or equivalent

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Chart Publication Delay: If Netflix fails to publish the chart by August 7, 2026, all markets resolve to "Other" or equivalent outcomes
  • Tie-Breaking: If two movies are tied for #2, the one that comes first alphabetically wins
Timing: Resolution occurs after Netflix publishes the Top 10 US Movies chart on August 4, 2026, with a deadline of August 7, 2026 for chart availabilityOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. Movies will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more movies are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

The event determines which movie will occupy the #2 position on the Netflix Top 10 US Movie chart for the week ending the Sunday before August 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific film, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if that film ranks #2 on the chart published on August 4, 2026. All markets share identical secondary rules: Netflix charts update on Tuesdays, so trading will close at 11:59 PM ET the Monday before the chart publication. No endorsement from Netflix is implied, and all references are purely descriptive. The outcome depends solely on Netflix's official chart ranking for that week.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the US Netflix #2 movie market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the likelihood of different films landing in the #2 spot on Netflix’s US charts this week. It displays current probabilities, volume of $44,160, and 24-hour volume of $7,692 to reflect market momentum and consensus. This view lets users compare how Polymarket and Kalshi users are positioning around the short_topic, highlighting any emerging trends before the market closes.