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402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
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2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Enola Holmes 3
- Kalshi
Enola Holmes 3 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 7, 2026
Closed: Jul 6, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group predicts which movie will rank #2 on Netflix's US Top 10 Movies chart for the week ending June 30, 2026, based on the official update published on July 7, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. Both platforms resolve to the same authoritative source: Netflix's published ranking on top10.netflix.com.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use the identical resolution source (Netflix's official Top 10 US Movies chart published July 7, 2026) and identical timing, with no conflicting thresholds, exclusions, or alternative data sources.Primary resolution logic: Netflix Top 10 Movies official rankings published on top10.netflix.com on July 7, 2026 at 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution is determined by which movie Netflix officially ranks as #2 on the US Top 10 Movies chart
- The ranking reflects total views in the United States for the week of Monday to Sunday prior to the Tuesday update
- Exactly one movie will resolve to Yes; all others resolve to No
- If multiple movies tie for #2, Netflix's published ranking order determines the winner
- If Netflix does not publish an update by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, all named-movie markets resolve to No and the Other/catch-all market resolves to Yes
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Netflix publishes no update by deadline: If top10.netflix.com does not publish a new ranking by July 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, all specific movie markets resolve to No and any Other/catch-all option resolves to Yes
- Movie not yet released or removed from Netflix: If a movie listed in the markets is not available on Netflix US during the measurement week, it cannot rank #2 and that market resolves to No
- Tie at #2 position: Netflix's published ranking will show a single #2 movie; if Netflix displays a tie, the movie listed first in Netflix's official ordering is the resolution winner
- Placeholder movie codes (Movie A, B, C, etc.): Polymarket includes generic placeholders (Movie A through Movie G); these resolve to Yes only if Netflix's #2 ranking is a movie not explicitly named in the other options, and only if the market creator has pre-identified the placeholder as that specific movie
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #2 US Netflix movie. The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies. If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by July 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by Netflix's official Top 10 US Movie chart published on July 7, 2026, which reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday. The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on July 6, 2026, the day before the chart publication. A Yes resolution occurs if the specified movie ranks at position #2 on that chart.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi serve different trader demographics, regulatory frameworks, and liquidity pools, which naturally produces price divergence. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in user base size, fee structures, and platform-specific incentives mean that identical events can trade at meaningfully different odds across venues. For instance, one platform may attract more casual movie fans while the other draws professional traders, shifting the aggregate forecast. Monitoring both prices helps you identify arbitrage opportunities and understand which venue's crowd is more confident in a particular outcome.
Box office performance, streaming subscriber growth announcements, and celebrity news tied to competing films can all shift trader sentiment and market odds. Major entertainment events—award nominations, festival premieres, or viral social media moments—often reshape expectations about which titles will dominate Netflix viewership. Additionally, Netflix's own promotional pushes and release timing for new films directly influence rankings. Real-time viewership data leaks or credible industry reports about streaming trends can trigger sharp repricing. Traders monitor entertainment news closely, so any development affecting a film's cultural momentum or audience reach will likely move this market before settlement.