TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (November 3)
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket
kalshi

What will be the #2 Netflix show this week?

Total volume:
$29,027
Volume 24h:
$3,834
8%
Liquidity:
$4,356
62%
Open interest:
$7,613
27%

Nobody Wants This: Season 3

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:03h:20m

Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?

97%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97.4¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 97% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Nobody Wants This: Season 3

Trade
97%
3%
Yes 97.4¢No 3.4¢
0.8¢
$397
$11,505
8%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 20m
Active
kalshi

Nobody Wants This: Season 3

Trade
95%
1%
Yes 99¢No 4¢
3¢
N/A
$5,849
30%
N/A
$2,771
13h 21m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
96.3%
Yes 98.2¢No 3.7¢
Avg: 1.9¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

From: Season 1

Trade
4%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$416
0%
N/A
$216
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

Haunted Hotel: Season 2

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$989
43%
N/A
$543
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

The One About Matthew Perry: Season 1

Trade
2%
2%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$3,191
12%
N/A
$1,807
13h 21m
Active
polymarket

The One About Matthew Perry: Limited Series

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 99.7¢
2.7¢
$921
$1,160
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 20m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.9%
Yes 3¢No 99.9¢
Avg: 2.8¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

The Fall of El Mayo: Limited Series

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 99.5¢
2.5¢
$470
$1,478
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 20m
Active
kalshi

Instadocs: AI Gone Wild

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$699
16%
N/A
$298
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

Is It Cake? Halloween: Season 2

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$699
16%
N/A
$298
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

Below: Limited Series

Trade
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$698
0%
N/A
$698
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

Raw: 2026 - October 12, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$400
0%
N/A
$400
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

The Diplomat: Season 4

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$988
11%
N/A
$583
13h 21m
Active
polymarket

The Diplomat: Season 4

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.9¢
0.9¢
$823
$259
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 20m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.9%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 3¢
polymarket

Minimum Wage: Season 1

Trade
1%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.9¢
0.8¢
$512
$208
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 20m
Active
polymarket

Love Is Blind: S11: Boston

Trade
0%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
—
$557
$245
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 20m
Active
kalshi

Love Is Blind: S11: Boston

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13h 21m
Active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 1¢No 99.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

The New Stanford Prison Experiment: Season 1

Trade
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 99.6¢
—
$675
$245
0%
N/A
N/A
1d 3h 20m
Active
kalshi

East of Eden: Limited Series

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

TYSON: Limited Series

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13h 21m
Active
kalshi

Spike: Season 1

Trade
N/A
N/A
1¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
13h 21m
Active
Total markets: 20

Description

This group asks forecasters to predict which show will be ranked #2 globally on Netflix for the week of November 3, 2026, based on Netflix's official Top 10 charts. Viewership is measured from Monday to Sunday prior to the chart's release.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi lists specific shows as possible outcomes, while Polymarket includes an 'Other' option, creating SKU risk.Hero tip: Be aware that a show not listed on Kalshi could win on Polymarket. Consider hedging or focusing on the most likely shows to minimize SKU risk.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to the show ranked #2 globally on Netflix’s Top 10 list, or 'Other' if the list is not updated by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. "Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles."
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if a specific listed show is ranked #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on November 3, 2026. Each show has its own market.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by November 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on November 3, 2026, which reflects viewership for the week ending the previous Sunday. Each market corresponds to a specific show or season, and resolution occurs if that title occupies the #2 position on the specified chart. Trading closes at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication to ensure fairness. None of these markets are endorsed by Netflix, and all references to the platform are used descriptively without implying affiliation or approval. The outcome depends solely on Netflix's official chart data for the defined week.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks the ranking of global Netflix shows. Specifically, it focuses on identifying which series will achieve the number two position in worldwide viewership during the specified week. The dashboard aggregates trading volume and implied probabilities from both platforms to provide a consensus view of the most likely outcome. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms is $29,027, with $3,333 traded in the last 24 hours. Polymarket currently favors Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? at 97.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Nobody Wants This: Season 3 be #2 Global Netflix Show on Nov 2, 2026? at 95.0%.

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can outperform traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or rely on limited data, while a prediction market aggregates the insights of many participants with diverse perspectives. The current implied probabilities in this market represent a collective assessment of the likelihood of each show becoming the number two global hit on Netflix. This aggregated view can provide a more accurate and dynamic prediction than individual expert opinions, especially as new information emerges.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can arise from several factors. These platforms have different user bases, trading interfaces, and fee structures, all of which can influence market behavior. Furthermore, the volume traded on each platform can vary significantly, leading to discrepancies in price discovery. For example, if a particular outcome attracts more attention and trading activity on Polymarket, its price may move more rapidly than on Kalshi. The current spread between the two platforms is 2.0.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The outcome will be determined by identifying the Netflix show that ranks as number two globally for the week in question, based on official viewership data released by Netflix or a widely recognized third-party data provider. The resolution will reflect the most accurate and publicly available information regarding Netflix’s global rankings at the time of settlement.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected announcements regarding new show releases or renewals could shift trader sentiment. Changes in viewership trends for existing shows, particularly those currently in contention, would also be influential. Positive or negative critical reception of a series, especially if it generates significant media buzz, could also move the market. Finally, any official statements from Netflix regarding viewership numbers or program performance could trigger substantial price adjustments in this market before Nov 4, 2026.