What will be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
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Description
This event group predicts which Netflix show will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending April 6, 2026, based on the official update published on April 7, 2026. Both platforms offer multiple binary markets on specific show titles, with resolution tied to Netflix's official rankings by total global views.
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution criteria: the show must rank exactly #2 on Netflix's official global Top 10 TV shows list published April 7, 2026, based on total views globally.
Primary resolution logic:
Netflix official Top 10 TV shows list published at top10.netflix.com on April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Core resolution logic:
Resolution date is fixed: April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Resolution window: viewership data from Monday March 31 to Sunday April 6, 2026
Ranking metric: total global views for TV shows (English only)
Resolution condition: the specified show must rank in exactly position #2 on Netflix's official Top 10 list
Each binary market (one per show title) resolves YES if that show is #2, NO if any other show is #2
Polymarket includes an 'Other' option that resolves YES if no update occurs by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Kalshi does not specify a fallback resolution if data is unavailable
Edge cases & Clarifications:
No update published by deadline: Polymarket resolves to Other if Netflix does not publish the update by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify fallback behavior; assume non-resolution or cancellation.
Tie at #2 position: Netflix's official ranking determines a single #2 show; ties are not expected in the published list. If a tie occurs, resolution follows Netflix's official presentation.
Show title variations: Kalshi lists 'Raw: 2026 - March 23, 2026' and 'Ms. Rachel: Season 1' and 'Ms. Rachel: Season 2' as distinct entries. Polymarket uses identical naming. Exact title match is required for YES resolution.
Placeholder show codes: Polymarket includes markets for 'Show A' through 'Show O' (15 placeholder codes). These resolve YES only if a show with that exact label appears at #2, which is unlikely; they function as catch-all NO outcomes unless Netflix uses identical naming.
English-only scope: Polymarket explicitly states ranking is based on English-only shows. Non-English shows are excluded from consideration even if they appear on Netflix's broader global list.
Timing:
Resolution occurs on April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET when Netflix publishes its official Top 10 Global TV Shows list. If the update does not occur by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, Polymarket resolves to Other; Kalshi behavior is unspecified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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