TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Apr 12, 2026
Closed: Apr 6, 8:00 PM EST
Polymarket
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,434
N/A
N/A
$1,308
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 37
Description
This event group predicts which Netflix show will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending April 6, 2026, based on the official update published on April 7, 2026. Both platforms offer multiple binary markets on specific show titles, with resolution tied to Netflix's official rankings by total global views.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms use identical resolution criteria: the show must rank exactly #2 on Netflix's official global Top 10 TV shows list published April 7, 2026, based on total views globally.Primary resolution logic: Netflix official Top 10 TV shows list published at top10.netflix.com on April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ETCore resolution logic:
- Resolution date is fixed: April 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
- Resolution window: viewership data from Monday March 31 to Sunday April 6, 2026
- Ranking metric: total global views for TV shows (English only)
- Resolution condition: the specified show must rank in exactly position #2 on Netflix's official Top 10 list
- Each binary market (one per show title) resolves YES if that show is #2, NO if any other show is #2
- Polymarket includes an 'Other' option that resolves YES if no update occurs by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
- Kalshi does not specify a fallback resolution if data is unavailable
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No update published by deadline: Polymarket resolves to Other if Netflix does not publish the update by April 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Kalshi does not specify fallback behavior; assume non-resolution or cancellation.
- Tie at #2 position: Netflix's official ranking determines a single #2 show; ties are not expected in the published list. If a tie occurs, resolution follows Netflix's official presentation.
- Show title variations: Kalshi lists 'Raw: 2026 - March 23, 2026' and 'Ms. Rachel: Season 1' and 'Ms. Rachel: Season 2' as distinct entries. Polymarket uses identical naming. Exact title match is required for YES resolution.
- Placeholder show codes: Polymarket includes markets for 'Show A' through 'Show O' (15 placeholder codes). These resolve YES only if a show with that exact label appears at #2, which is unlikely; they function as catch-all NO outcomes unless Netflix uses identical naming.
- English-only scope: Polymarket explicitly states ranking is based on English-only shows. Non-English shows are excluded from consideration even if they appear on Netflix's broader global list.