TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Something Very Bad is Going to Happen
- Kalshi
Something Very Bad is Going to Happen - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Apr 1, 2026
Closed: Mar 31, 10:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event group asks which show will rank #2 on Netflix's global Top 10 TV shows list for the week ending Sunday, March 30, 2026, as published on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, March 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET. The ranking is determined by total global views for English-language TV shows only, with exactly one show resolving to YES and all others to NO.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket and Kalshi differ in scope and coverage of candidate shows. Polymarket includes placeholder shows (Show B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K) and an 'Other' catch-all, while Kalshi specifies a fixed list of named shows with no explicit 'Other' option, creating different resolution universes.Hero tip: If you trade on Polymarket, your YES outcome depends on one of 11 named shows or the 'Other' category resolving. On Kalshi, only 16 specific named shows can resolve YES—if the actual #2 show is not on Kalshi's list, that market cannot resolve YES and may default to NO or void. Cross-platform arbitrage is risky: a show that resolves YES on Polymarket's 'Other' will not resolve YES on Kalshi.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Polymarket offers 11 named shows (ONE PIECE: Season 2, Age of Attraction: Season 1, Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic, A Friend, A Murderer: Limited Series, Love is Blind: The Reunion, Virgin River: Season 7, MLB Opening Night: Yankees vs. Giants, Bridgerton: Season 4, The Dinosaurs: Season 1, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series) plus 11 placeholder shows (Show B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K) and an explicit 'Other' category. The market resolves YES if the named show is ranked #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global TV shows list published March 31, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, or resolves to 'Other' if the update does not occur by April 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Kalshi: Distinct stance: Kalshi specifies exactly 16 named shows (Derrick Stroup: Nostalgic, Raw: 2026, The Dinosaurs: Season 1, A Friend, a Murderer: Limited Series, Virgin River: Season 7, The TikTok Killer: Limited Series, ONE PIECE: Season 2, Love Is Blind: The Reunion, Bridgerton: Season 4, Age of Attraction: Season 1, Mark Rober's CrunchLabs: Season 3, Love & Death: Season 1, Beauty in Black: Season 2, ONE PIECE: Season 1, MLB Opening Night: Yankees vs. Giants, Something Very Bad is Going to Happen) with no explicit 'Other' option. Each market resolves YES if that specific show is ranked #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published March 31, 2026, with no fallback or catch-all category defined.