TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Death of the Pastor's Wife: Season 1
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 15, 2026
Closed: Sep 15, 4:58 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group asks forecasters to predict which show will be the second most popular on Netflix globally for a given week. Resolution depends on the official Netflix Top 10 list published on Tuesdays. The markets aim to identify the show ranked #2 by total views.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms rely on the same source (Netflix Top 10) and ranking methodology, with a tiebreaker rule of alphabetical order.Primary resolution logic: top10.netflix.comCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves based on the show ranked #2 on the Netflix Global Top 10 list.
- In case of a tie in ranking, the show with the alphabetically earlier title prevails.
- If the Netflix Top 10 list is not published by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Update: If Netflix fails to publish the Top 10 list by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'Other'.
- Tie in Ranking: If two or more shows are tied for #2, the show with the alphabetically earlier title will be considered the #2 show.
Polymarket
Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). This market will resolve based on which show this update ranks as the #2 global Netflix show. Shows will be primarily ranked by chart ranking. If two or more shows are tied on chart ranking, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the shows' listed titles. This market will resolve to the show that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for TV shows (English only). If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by September 18, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if its specified show ranks #2 on the Netflix Top 10 Global Show chart published on September 15, 2026. The chart reflects viewing data for the week ending the previous Sunday, with all markets closing at 11:59 PM ET the day before the chart's publication. All markets explicitly note that they are not endorsed by Netflix, and any references to the platform are purely descriptive.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' that can outperform traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be subject to biases or limited information, whereas a prediction market aggregates the insights of many participants with diverse perspectives. While analyst predictions can be valuable, this market provides a real-time, financially incentivized assessment of the most likely outcome. The difference between the two can sometimes be significant, especially when complex factors are at play in determining the #2 global Netflix show.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected releases of new shows on Netflix, or surges in popularity for existing series, are key catalysts. Major marketing campaigns or critical acclaim for a particular show could also drive viewership and shift the odds. News regarding production delays or cancellations of competing shows could also influence the outcome. Shifts in global viewing habits, or changes to Netflix’s ranking methodology, could also be impactful. Monitoring entertainment news and social media trends will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.